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Assessing the implications of a 1.5 ℃ temperature limit for the Jamaican agriculture sector

机译：评估温度限制在1.5℃对牙买加农业的影响

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Despite recent calls to limit future increases in the global average temperature to well below 2 degrees C, little is known about how different climatic thresholds will impact human society. Future warming trends have significant global food security implications, particularly for small island developing states (SIDS) that are recognized as being among the most vulnerable to global climate change. In the case of the Caribbean, any significant change in the region's climate is likely to have significant adverse effects on the agriculture sector. This paper explores the potential biophysical impacts of a +1.5 degrees C warming scenario on several economically important crops grown in the Caribbean island of Jamaica. Also, it explores differences to a 2.0 degrees C warming scenario, which is more likely, if the current policy agreements cannot be complied with by the international community. We use the ECOCROP niche model to estimate how predicted changes in future climate could affect the growing conditions of several commonly cultivated crops from both future scenarios. We then discuss some key policy considerations for Jamaica's agriculture sector, specifically related to the challenges posed to future adaptation pathways amidst growing climate uncertainty and complexity. Our model results show that even an increase less than +1.5 degrees C is expected to have an overall negative impact on crop suitability and a general reduction in the range of crops available to Jamaican farmers. This observation is instructive as increases above the +1.5 degrees C threshold would likely lead to even more irreversible and potentially catastrophic changes to the sustainability of Jamaica's agriculture sector. The paper concludes by outlining some key considerations for future action, paying keen attention to the policy relevance of a +1.5 degrees C temperature limit. Given little room for optimism with respect to the imminent changes that SIDS will need to confront in the near future, broad-based policy engagement by stakeholders in these geographies is paramount, irrespective of the climate warming scenario.
机译：尽管最近呼吁将全球平均温度的未来升高限制在2摄氏度以下，但人们对不同的气候阈值将如何影响人类社会知之甚少。未来的变暖趋势将对全球粮食安全产生重大影响，特别是对于小岛屿发展中国家（SIDS）而言，小岛屿发展中国家被认为是全球气候变化最脆弱的国家之一。就加勒比地区而言，该地区气候的任何重大变化都可能对农业部门产生重大不利影响。本文探讨了+1.5摄氏度的升温情景对在加勒比海牙买加岛上种植的几种具有重要经济意义的作物的潜在生物物理影响。此外，它还探讨了> 2.0°C的升温情景之间的差异，如果国际社会无法遵守当前的政策协议，则更有可能出现这种差异。我们使用ECOCROP生态位模型来估计未来气候的预测变化将如何影响这两种未来情景中几种常用栽培作物的生长状况。然后，我们讨论了牙买加农业部门的一些关键政策考虑因素，特别是与在气候不确定性和复杂性日益增加的情况下，未来适应途径所面临的挑战有关。我们的模型结果表明，即使升幅低于+1.5摄氏度，也将对作物适应性产生总体负面影响，并普遍减少牙买加农民可获得的作物范围。这一观察是有启发性的，因为升高到+1.5摄氏度阈值以上可能会导致牙买加农业部门可持续性的甚至更不可逆转甚至潜在的灾难性变化。本文最后总结了未来行动的一些关键考虑因素，并密切关注+1.5摄氏度温度限制的政策相关性。对于小岛屿发展中国家在不久的将来将要面对的即将发生的变化方面没有乐观的余地，无论气候变暖的情况如何，利益攸关方在这些地区开展基础广泛的政策参与都是至关重要的。

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