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Development of an Input-Output Model Considering Simultaneous Effect of Risks in Infrastructure under Dynamic Conditions

机译:考虑在动态条件下,考虑到基础设施风险同时效果的输入输出模型

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摘要

In this paper, a multi-objective model is proposed based on Haimes and Jiang's Input-Output model [1], which was developed to examine the impact of each infrastructure's risks on the performance other infrastructures in an interconnected system. Also, the simultaneous effect of risks on the model was investigated. Additionally, to reduce the harmful effects of risks, risk response strategies and associated costs were identified for each risk. The proposed model selects the best response strategies, which minimizes the inoperability of any infrastructure considering the limited budget. Thus, the comparison between the static input-output inoperability model (IIM) and dynamic inoperability input-output model (DIIM) was made for each infrastructure's risks and associated risk responses considering the simultaneous effect of risks. In the first case, 32 out of the 48 selected risk responses have been eliminated the effect of the relevant risk, whereas in the second case only 9 risk responses had this capability. Therefore, the simultaneous occurrence of risks leads to a decrease in the performance of the infrastructure as well as an increase in the inoperability of the infrastructure, and as a result, the efficiency of the responses decreases.
机译:在本文中,基于HAIMES和Jiang的输入 - 输出模型提出了一种多目标模型,该模型是开发的,以检查每个基础架构风险对互联系统中的其他基础设施的影响。此外,研究了风险对模型的同时效果。此外,为了减少风险的有害影响,为每种风险确定风险反应策略和相关成本。该建议的模型选择了最佳响应策略,从而最大限度地减少了考虑预算有限的任何基础设施的不可操作。因此,对于每个基础设施的风险和相关的风险反应,对每个基础设施的风险和相关的风险反应进行了静态输入 - 输出不可操作模型(IIM)和动态不可操作性输入 - 输出模型(DIIM)之间的比较。在第一种情况下,48个选定的风险反应中的32例已经消除了相关风险的效果,而在第二种情况下只有9个风险反应具有这种能力。因此,风险的同时发生导致基础设施性能的降低以及基础设施的不可操作性的增加,结果,响应的效率降低。

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