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Testing the immigrant assimilation hypothesis with longitudinal data

机译：用纵向数据检验移民同化假设

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This paper is concerned with the comparison of alternative empirical techniques (cross section, synthetic cohort and panel data) for testing the immigrant assimilation hypothesis (IAH). The IAH specifies that immigrants acquire destination relevant human capital, but at a decreasing rate, with duration in the destination. Hence, ceteris paribus, earnings would be expected to increase, at a decreasing rate, with duration. The true assimilation effects may be obscured, however, in analyses of synthetic cohort or panel (longitudinal) data if there are period effects. That is, if the effect on earnings of duration in the destination varies over time. The empirical analysis uses a matched sample of adult male immigrants from the 1983 and 1995 Censuses of Israel. The matched data show that selective exit from the labor force (due to death, absence from the labor force, and inability to match, but not the remigration of immigrants) is associated with lower earnings in 1983. This biases upward the earnings assimilation estimated by the synthetic cohort method. The earnings data are also consistent with the hypothesis that the mass immigration to Israel from 1989 to 1995 raised the return (price) to Israeli-specific human capital among long-duration immigrants sufficiently to more than offset the greater increase in units of destination human capital acquired by more recent immigrants. As a result, long-duration immigrants experienced a steeper increase in earnings from 1983 to 1995. This annulled the true assimilation effects from 1983 to 1995. Longitudinal tests of IAH which assume that the returns to destination-specific skills remained constant (i.e., that there are no period effects) are biased against supporting the IAH if these returns increased.
机译：本文关注用于检验移民同化假设（IAH）的替代经验技术（横截面，合成队列和面板数据）的比较。 IAH规定，移民获得目的地相关的人力资本，但是其持续时间在目的地，但比率递减。因此，与其他人相比，收入会随着持续时间的增长而以下降的速度增加。真正的同化效果可能会被遮盖，但是，如果存在周期效应，则在合成队列或面板（纵向）数据的分析中可能会掩盖这些效果。也就是说，如果对目的地持续时间收入的影响随时间而变化。实证分析使用了来自1983年和1995年以色列人口普查的成年男性移民的匹配样本。匹配的数据表明，有选择地退出劳动力市场（由于死亡，劳动力的缺乏和无法匹配，而不是移民的迁移）与1983年的收入较低有关。这使按综合队列方法。收入数据还与以下假设相一致：1989年至1995年大规模移民到以色列提高了长期移民中以色列特定人力资本的回报（价格），足以抵消目的人力资本单位的较大增长。被新移民获得。结果，从1983年至1995年，长期移民的收入急剧增加。这取消了1983年至1995年的真正同化作用。IAH的纵向检验假定了针对特定目的地技能的回报保持不变（即如果这些回报增加，则倾向于支持IAH。

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