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首页> 外文期刊>Risk analysis >Risk Assessment of Salmonellosis from Consumption of Alfalfa Sprouts and Evaluation of the Public Health Impact of Sprout Seed Treatment and Spent Irrigation Water Testing
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Risk Assessment of Salmonellosis from Consumption of Alfalfa Sprouts and Evaluation of the Public Health Impact of Sprout Seed Treatment and Spent Irrigation Water Testing

机译：苜蓿芽苗对沙门氏菌病的风险评估以及芽苗种子处理和灌溉水测试对公共健康的影响评估

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We developed a risk assessment of human salmonellosis associated with consumption of alfalfa sprouts in the United States to evaluate the public health impact of applying treatments to seeds (0-5-log(10) reduction in Salmonella) and testing spent irrigation water (SIW) during production. The risk model considered variability and uncertainty in Salmonella contamination in seeds, Salmonella growth and spread during sprout production, sprout consumption, and Salmonella dose response. Based on an estimated prevalence of 2.35% for 6.8 kg seed batches and without interventions, the model predicted 76,600 (95% confidence interval (CI) 15,400-248,000) cases/year. Risk reduction (by 5- to 7-fold) predicted from a 1-log(10) seed treatment alone was comparable to SIW testing alone, and each additional 1-log(10) seed treatment was predicted to provide a greater risk reduction than SIW testing. A 3-log(10) or a 5-log(10) seed treatment reduced the predicted cases/year to 139 (95% CI 33-448) or 1.4 (95% CI 1-4.5), respectively. Combined with SIW testing, a 3-log(10) or 5-log(10) seed treatment reduced the cases/year to 45 (95% CI 10-146) or 1 (95% CI 1-1.5), respectively. If the SIW coverage was less complete (i.e., less representative), a smaller risk reduction was predicted, e.g., a combined 3-log(10) seed treatment and SIW testing with 20% coverage resulted in an estimated 92 (95% CI 22-298) cases/year. Analysis of alternative scenarios using different assumptions for key model inputs showed that the predicted relative risk reductions are robust. This risk assessment provides a comprehensive approach for evaluating the public health impact of various interventions in a sprout production system.
机译：我们在美国开发了与食用苜蓿芽有关的人类沙门氏菌病风险评估，以评估对种子进行处理（沙门氏菌减少0-5-log（10））和测试用过的灌溉水（SIW）对公共健康的影响在生产过程中。该风险模型考虑了种子中沙门氏菌污染的变异性和不确定性，发芽过程中沙门氏菌的生长和扩散，食用新芽以及沙门氏菌的剂量反应。基于6.8千克种子批次的估计患病率2.35％，而无需干预，该模型预测每年有76,600（95％置信区间（CI）15,400-248,000）例。单独使用1-log（10）种子处理所预测的降低风险（降低5到7倍）与单独进行SIW测试相当，并且预计每增加1个log（10）种子处理所带来的风险降低比SIW测试。 3 log（10）或5-log（10）种子处理将每年的预测病例数减少到139（95％CI 33-448）或1.4（95％CI <1-4.5）。结合SIW测试，3 log（10）或5-log（10）种子处理将每年减少病例数至45（95％CI 10-146）或<1（95％CI <1-1.5）。 。如果SIW覆盖范围不够完整（即代表性较差），则预计风险降低幅度较小，例如，结合3-log（10）种子处理和20％覆盖率的SIW测试，得出的估计值为92（95％CI 22 -298）例/年。对关键模型输入使用不同假设的替代方案分析表明，预测的相对风险降低是可靠的。该风险评估为评估芽苗生产系统中各种干预措施对公共健康的影响提供了一种全面的方法。

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