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A revised Brown and Payne model of voting behaviour applied to the 2009 elections in Italy

机译：经修订的布朗和佩恩投票行为模型适用于2009年意大利大选

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摘要

When elections are close in time, voters may stick to their preferred party or chose a different option for several reasons; reliable estimates of the amount of transitions across the available options can allow to answer a number of relevant questions about electoral behaviour. We describe a modified version of the model due to Brown and Payne (J Am Stat Assoc 81:453-460, 1986) and argue that it is based on simple, yet realistic, assumptions with a direct interpretation in terms of individual behaviour and compares well with other models proposed more recently. We apply the model to an Italian borough where, during June 2009, two elections were held simultaneously and a runoff took place two weeks later. Estimates of the joint distribution of voters between the European Parliament election and the other two elections provide evidence of substantially different kinds of voting behaviour which, given the specific context, we interpret in the light of the recent literature on the subject.
机译：当选举临近时，选民可能会坚持其首选政党或出于多种原因选择其他选择。有关可用选项的过渡数量的可靠估计可以回答有关选举行为的许多相关问题。由于布朗和佩恩（J Am Stat Assoc 81：453-460，1986），我们描述了该模型的修改版本，并认为该模型基于简单但现实的假设，并且可以根据个人行为进行直接解释，并进行比较与最近提出的其他模型很好。我们将模型应用于意大利自治市镇，该镇在2009年6月同时举行了两次选举，并在两周后进行了径流。对欧洲议会选举与其他两次选举之间的选民联合分配的估计提供了实质上不同种类的投票行为的证据，在特定的背景下，我们将根据有关该主题的最新文献进行解释。

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