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Causal inference, mechanisms, and the Semmelweis case

机译：因果推论，机制和Semmelweis案例

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Semmelweis's discovery of the cause of puerperal fever around the middle of the 19th century counts among the paradigm cases of scientific discovery. For several decades, philosophers of science have used the episode to illustrate, appraise and compare views of proper scientific methodology. Here I argue that the episode can be profitably reexamined in light of two cognate notions: causal reasoning and mechanisms. Semmelweis used several causal reasoning strategies both to support his own and to reject competing hypotheses. However, these strategies have gone unappreciated in the existing literature. I show that a causal reasoning approach makes sense of the multitude of tables in Semmelweis's main text, which in later editions were often abridged because they appeared redundant. Moreover, the existing literature tends to focus on Semmelweis's clinical intervention and on the extent to which it alone confirms his theoretical conclusions. This neglects Semmelweis's efforts to show by animal experiments that his clinical results are in agreement with a demonstrable mechanism of puerperal fever pathogenesis. I argue that the full evidential force of Semmelweis's argument can only be appreciated if both his clinical and his laboratory investigations are taken into account.
机译：塞梅尔维斯（Semmelweis）在19世纪中叶对产褥热的发现，属于科学发现的典范案例。几十年来，科学哲学家一直在用这一集来说明，评估和比较适当的科学方法论的观点。在这里，我认为可以根据两个相关概念重新审视这一事件：因果推理和机制。塞梅尔维斯使用多种因果推理策略来支持自己的观点并拒绝相互竞争的假设。但是，这些策略在现有文献中并未得到重视。我展示了一种因果推理方法可以理解塞梅尔维斯（Semmelweis）正文中的大量表格，这些表格在以后的版本中经常被删节，因为它们显得多余。此外，现有文献倾向于侧重于Semmelweis的临床干预以及仅凭其本身就可以证实其理论结论的程度。这忽视了塞梅尔维斯通过动物实验证明其临床结果与产后发热发病机理的可证实机制相一致的努力。我认为，只有同时考虑到他的临床研究和实验室研究，才能理解塞梅尔维斯论点的全部证据力。

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