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首页> 外文期刊>Technological forecasting and social change >The future's four quarters: Proposing a quadrant methodology for strategic prototyping in infrastructural contexts
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The future's four quarters: Proposing a quadrant methodology for strategic prototyping in infrastructural contexts

机译：未来的四个季度：为基础设施环境中的战略原型提出一种象限方法

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摘要

In this paper I propose and demonstrate an experimental methodology for producing suites of complementary prototype stories with which to facilitate innovation and forecasting exercises in the global infrastructural sector. I construct a quadrant diagram in order to outline four possible near-future scenarios for 2025 based on the divergence of two high-level global trends. For each resulting quadrant, I select one or more "seed topics" related to the underlying suite-theme of global water stress and access scarcity, seeking in particular those topics which resonate with the scenario, and adding additional context where suited. I then present the four resulting prototype vignettes separately, introducing the seed topics and theoretical context, sketching out the "world" of the scenario in which it is set, presenting the prototypes themselves in synopsis form, and finally discussing the technological and social implications which emerge from each narrative, and their relationships with the scenarios from which they stem. Finally, I discuss the suitability of this methodology in the context of projects which focus on considering possibilities for infrastructural developments rather than evaluating discreet new technologies, and position it in the context of contemporary science fiction literature.
机译：在本文中，我提出并演示了一种实验方法，用于产生一系列互补的原型故事，从而促进全球基础设施领域的创新和预测活动。我构建了一个象限图，以便基于两种全球高级趋势的差异概述2025年的四种可能的近期情况。对于每个出现的象限，我选择一个或多个与基础套件主题相关的“种子主题”，这些主题是全球缺水和水资源匮乏的主题，尤其要寻找与情景相呼应的主题，并在适当的地方添加其他上下文。然后，我分别介绍了四个最终的原型渐晕，介绍了种子主题和理论背景，勾画了场景的“世界”，以提要的形式展示了原型本身，最后讨论了技术和社会意义。从每个叙述中浮现出来，以及它们与它们产生的场景的关系。最后，我在项目的背景下讨论了这种方法的适用性，这些项目的重点是考虑基础设施发展的可能性，而不是评估谨慎的新技术，并将其置于当代科幻文学的背景下。

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