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Discrete Choice Model of Agricultural Shipper's Mode Choice

机译：农业托运人模式选择的离散选择模型

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This article presents disaggregate mode choice model for shippers of agricultural freight. We have used disaggregated revealed preference (RP) data of grain -movement from elevators to develop the model. The utility function includes attributes of the modes, attributes of the shippers, and interaction between the two. We initially estimate the mode choice probability assuming the random component of the utility function to have logit distribution. Price agreement between shippers and carriers, variation of railcars availability, and variation of equipment ownership annul the assumptions of the logit model. To overcome this problem we introduced heteroscedastic extreme value model, probit model and mixed-logit model. Based on estimated McFadden's likelihood ratio, it is observed that probit model is the best fit. We estimated demand elasticity to assess the sensitivity of mode choice probability to changes in cost of shipment, elevator capacity and quantity of shipment. To validate the model's prediction accuracy we estimated hit ratio of the forecast mode choice for individual shipment; the result was satisfactory.
机译：本文提出了农业货运托运人的分解模式选择模型。我们使用了来自电梯的谷物运动的分解显示偏好（RP）数据来开发模型。实用程序功能包括模式属性，托运人属性以及两者之间的交互。我们最初估计效用函数的随机分量具有对数分布的模式选择概率。托运人和承运人之间的价格协议，铁路车辆可用性的变化以及设备所有权的变化都取消了logit模型的假设。为了克服这个问题，我们引入了异方差极值模型，概率模型和混合对数模型。根据估算的McFadden的似然比，可以发现概率模型是最合适的。我们估计了需求弹性，以评估模式选择概率对运输成本，电梯容量和运输数量变化的敏感性。为了验证模型的预测准确性，我们估计了单个装运的预测模式选择的命中率；结果令人满意。

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