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The role of volume-delay functions in forecasting and evaluating congestion charging schemes: the Stockholm case

机译：体积延迟功能在预测和评估拥堵收费方案中的作用：斯德哥尔摩案例

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This paper uses observations from before and during the Stockkholm congestion charging trial in order to validate and improve a transportation model for Stockholm. The model overestimates the impact of the charges on traffic volumes while at the same time it substantially underestimates the impact on travel times. These forecast errors lead to considerable underestimation of economic benefits which are dominated by travel time savings. The source of error lies in the static assignment that is used in the model. Making the volume-delay functions (VDFs) steeper only marginally improves the quality of forecast but strongly impacts the result of benefit calculations. We therefore conclude that the dynamic assignment is crucial for an informed decision on introducing measures aimed at relieving congestion. However, in the absence of such a calibrated dynamic model for a city, we recommend that at least a sensitivity analysis with respect to the slope of VDFs is performed.
机译：本文使用Stockkholm拥堵收费试验之前和期间的观察结果，以验证和改进斯德哥尔摩的交通运输模型。该模型高估了收费对交通量的影响，而同时却大大低估了对出行时间的影响。这些预测误差导致对经济利益的低估，而后者主要是节省旅行时间。错误的根源在于模型中使用的静态分配。增大音量延迟函数（VDF）只能稍微提高预测质量，但会严重影响收益计算的结果。因此，我们得出结论，动态分配对于采取旨在缓解拥塞的措施的明智决定至关重要。但是，在没有针对城市的这种经过校准的动态模型的情况下，我们建议至少对VDF的坡度进行敏感性分析。

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