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A statistical analysis of the dynamics of household hurricane-evacuation decisions

机译：对家庭飓风撤离决策动态的统计分析

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With the increasing number of hurricanes in the last decade, efficient and timely evacuation remains a significant concern. Households' decisions to evacuate/stay and selection of departure time are complex phenomena. This study identifies the different factors that influence the decision making process, and if a household decides to evacuate, what affects the timing of the execution of that decision. While developing a random parameters binary logit model of the evacuate/stay decision, several factors, such as, socio-economic characteristics, actions by authority, and geographic location, have been considered along with the dynamic nature of the hurricane itself. In addition, taking the landfall as a base, how the evacuation timing varies, considering both the time-of-day and hours before landfall, has been analyzed rigorously. Influential factors in the joint model include the relative time until the hurricane's landfall, height of the coastal flooding, and approaching speed of the hurricane; household's geographic location (state); having more than one child in the household, vehicle ownership, and level of education; and type of evacuation notice received (voluntary or mandatory). Two time intervals from 30 to 42 h and 42 to 66 h before landfall resulted in random parameters, reflecting mixed effects on the likelihood to evacuate/stay. Possible sources of the unobserved heterogeneity captured by the random parameters include the respondents' risk perception or other unobserved physiological and psychological factors associated with how respondents comprehend a hurricane threat. Thus, the model serves the purpose of estimating evacuation decision and timing simultaneously using the data of Hurricane Ivan.
机译：在过去十年中，随着飓风数量的增加，高效及时地撤离仍然是一个重大问题。家庭做出疏散/停留和选择出发时间的决定是复杂的现象。这项研究确定了影响决策过程的不同因素，如果一个家庭决定撤离，什么因素会影响该决策的执行时间。在建立撤离/停留决策的随机参数二进制logit模型时，考虑了飓风本身的动态性质等多种因素，例如社会经济特征，政府采取的行动和地理位置。另外，以落地为基础，对落地时间和落地前的时间进行了严格分析。联合模型中的影响因素包括飓风登陆之前的相对时间，沿海洪水的高度以及飓风的逼近速度。家庭的地理位置（州）；家庭中有一个以上的孩子，车辆拥有权和受教育程度；以及收到的疏散通知的类型（自愿或强制性）。登陆前30到42 h和42到66 h的两个时间间隔产生了随机参数，反映了对撤离/停留可能性的混合影响。随机参数捕获的未观察到的异质性的可能来源包括被访者的风险感知或与被访者如何理解飓风威胁相关的其他未观察到的生理和心理因素。因此，该模型用于使用飓风伊万的数据同时估算疏散决策和时间安排。

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