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首页> 外文期刊>Proceedings of the Institution of Mechanical Engineers, Part O. Journal of Risk and Reliability >Uncertainty assessment of reliability estimates for safety-instrumented systems
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Uncertainty assessment of reliability estimates for safety-instrumented systems

机译：安全仪表系统可靠性评估的不确定性评估

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摘要

Reliability estimates play a crucial role in decision making related to the design and operation of safety-instrumented systems. A safety-instrumented system is often a complex system whose performance is seldom fully understood. The safety-instrumented system reliability estimation is influenced by several simplifications and assumptions, both about the safety-instrumented system and its operating context, and therefore subject to uncertainty. If the decision makers are not aware of the level of uncertainty, they may misinterpret the results and select a safety-instrumented system design that is either too complex or too simple, or with an inadequate testing strategy, to provide the required risk reduction. This article elucidates the uncertainties related to safety-instrumented system reliability estimation. The article is limited to safety-instrumented systems that are operated in a low-demand mode, for which the probability of failure on demand is the standard reliability measure. The uncertainty of the probability of failure on demand estimate is classified as completeness uncertainty, model uncertainty, and parameter uncertainty and each category is thoroughly discussed. It is argued that the completeness uncertainty is the most important for safety-instrumented system reliability analyses, followed by parameter and model uncertainty. It is further argued that uncertainty assessment should be an integrated part of any safety-instrumented system reliability analysis, and that the analyst should communicate her judgment about the uncertainty to the decision-makers as part of the analysis results.
机译：可靠性评估在与安全仪表系统的设计和运行有关的决策中起着至关重要的作用。安全仪表系统通常是一个复杂的系统，其性能鲜为人知。安全仪表系统的可靠性估计受安全仪表系统及其运行环境的几种简化和假设的影响，因此存在不确定性。如果决策者不知道不确定性的程度，则他们可能会误解结果，而选择过于复杂或过于简单或测试策略不足的安全仪表系统设计，无法降低风险。本文阐明了与安全仪表系统可靠性估计有关的不确定性。本文仅限于在低需求模式下运行的安全仪表系统，对于这些系统，按需发生故障的概率是标准的可靠性度量。需求估计失败概率的不确定性分为完整性不确定性，模型不确定性和参数不确定性，并对每个类别进行了详细讨论。有人认为，完整性不确定性对于安全仪表系统可靠性分析最为重要，其次是参数和模型不确定性。进一步认为，不确定性评估应作为任何安全仪表系统可靠性分析的组成部分，分析人员应将其对不确定性的判断作为分析结果的一部分传达给决策者。

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