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A Quantitative Analysis of the Performance of Transportation Projects in Developing Countries

机译：发展中国家运输项目绩效的定量分析

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摘要

This paper presents the results of a detailed quantitative analysis of performance metrics of a sample consisting of 89 transportation projects sponsored by the World Bank. The sample and a subset consisting of 65 projects were evaluated using the performance metrics of project cost, schedule and scope. The effect of project size (dollar value) and project duration on performance metrics was investigated. Also, the achievement of project goals and potential improvement in planning and estimating over time (the learning effect) was studied. It was found that, in general, in transportation projects sponsored by the World Bank, costs are overestimated and schedules are optimistic. The outcome with respect to cost seems counter-intuitive because previous work by other researchers had shown a systematic underestimation of project costs. There is significant evidence that there are no efficient controls in place to predict or prevent schedule delays. The study also showed that during the past 15 years, no improvement (learning effect) was evident in project cost and duration estimation as the level of accuracy has not changed significantly. Further, it is observed that project duration did not affect the performance with respect to cost and delay.
机译：本文介绍了对由世界银行发起的89个运输项目组成的样本的绩效指标进行详细定量分析的结果。使用项目成本，进度和范围的绩效指标对样本和包含65个项目的子集进行了评估。研究了项目规模（美元价值）和项目持续时间对绩效指标的影响。此外，还研究了项目目标的实现以及随着时间的推移在规划和估算方面的潜在改进（学习效果）。人们发现，总的来说，在世界银行赞助的运输项目中，成本被高估了，进度是乐观的。关于成本的结果似乎是违反直觉的，因为其他研究人员的先前工作表明系统地低估了项目成本。有大量证据表明，没有有效的控制措施可以预测或防止进度延迟。研究还表明，在过去的15年中，项目的成本和工期估算没有明显的改善（学习效果），因为准确性水平没有显着变化。此外，可以观察到，项目持续时间并没有影响成本和延误方面的绩效。

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