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What Determines Decision-Makers' Preferences for Road Investments? Evidence from the Norwegian Road Sector

机译：是什么决定了决策者对道路投资的偏好？挪威道路部门的证据

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What determines decision-makers' preferences for road projects has been a subject of debate in the transport economics literature for decades. Because economic assessments of road projects are conducted subject to demands by decision-makers in almost all western European countries and the USA, it should be expected that they use these assessments in one way or another to determine the preferred portfolios of projects. This paper attempts to reveal the preference of decision-makers with respect to road investment projects to be included in the Norwegian National Transport Plan for the period 2002-11. The decision-makers are the Norwegian parliament members. The basis for considering each individual project for investment is the Impact Assessment sheet containing monetized and non-monetized impacts that will accrue to society if a project is implemented. The dataset comprises a pool of 1121 independent projects, of which 184 were selected for investment. We hypothesize different models that may explain decision-making using a multinomial logit model. The preferred model shows that most of the variables determining decisions are actually included in the traditional benefit-cost analyses (BCAs), except that the decisionmaker takes account of them in non-monetary units rather than in a composite benefit-cost ratio or net present value. Further, among the government's three stated objectives of efficiency, safety and regional development, only safety is found to be significant in the preferred model. These results support other previous studies to the extent that a BCA per se does not matter in decision-making, but its components matter in a non-monetized form.
机译：数十年来，决定决策者对公路项目偏好的因素一直是运输经济学文献中的争论主题。由于对道路项目的经济评估是受几乎所有西欧国家和美国决策者的要求而进行的，因此应该期望他们以一种或另一种方式使用这些评估来确定首选的项目组合。本文试图揭示决策者对于道路投资项目的偏好，该项目将被纳入2002-11年度的挪威国家运输计划。决策者是挪威议会成员。考虑每个项目投资的基础是影响评估表，其中包含货币化和非货币化的影响，如果实施一个项目，则会对社会产生影响。该数据集包括1121个独立项目的库，其中184个被选择进行投资。我们假设可以使用多项式logit模型解释决策的不同模型。首选模型显示，决定决策的大多数变量实际上都包含在传统的收益成本分析（BCA）中，除了决策者以非货币单位而不是综合的收益成本比率或净现值来考虑决策时值。此外，在政府提出的效率，安全和区域发展的三个既定目标中，只有安全性才是首选模型中的重要部分。这些结果在一定程度上支持了先前的其他研究，即BCA本身对决策没有影响，但其组成部分以非货币化形式具有影响。

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