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Life expectancy and economic growth: the role of the demographic transition

机译:预期寿命和经济增长:人口转变的作用

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This paper investigates the hypothesis that the causal effect of life expectancy on income per capita growth is non-monotonic. This hypothesis follows from the recent literature on unified growth, in which the demographic transition represents an important turning point for population dynamics and hence plays a central role for the transition from stagnation to growth. Results from different empirical specifications and identification strategies document that the effect is non-monotonic, negative (but often insignificant) before the onset of the demographic transition, but strongly positive after its onset. The results provide a new interpretation of the contradictory existing evidence and have relevant policy implications.
机译:本文研究以下假设:预期寿命对人均收入的因果关系不是单调的。该假设来自最近关于统一增长的文献,在人口增长中,人口转变是人口动态的重要转折点,因此对于从停滞到增长的转变起着核心作用。来自不同经验规范和识别策略的结果表明,这种影响在人口转变开始之前是非单调的,负面的(但通常是微不足道的),但在开始转变之后则是强烈的正的。结果为矛盾的现有证据提供了新的解释,并具有相关的政策含义。

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