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A novel method for predicting fracture in floating ice

机译：一种预测浮冰破裂的新方法

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Basal crevasses may play an important precursory role in determining both the location and propagation of rifts and iceberg dimensions. For example, icebergs calved recently from Thwaites Glacier, Antarctica, have the same width as surface undulations, strengthening the connection between basal crevasses, rifting and calving. We explore a novel method for estimating the heights of basal crevasses formed at the grounding lines of ice shelves and ice streams. We employ a thin-elastic beam (TEB) formulation and tensional yielding criterion to capture the physics of flexed ice at grounding lines. Observations of basal crevasse heights compare well with model predictions in the Siple Coast region of the Ross Ice Shelf. We find that the TEB method is most accurate in areas of low strain rate. We also test the method in other areas of Antarctica to produce order-of-magnitude maps of grounding-line basal crevasses and find general agreement with reported observations assuming basal crevasses develop in spatio-temporal sequence and are advected downstream. This method is computationally cheap and could be relatively easy to implement into damage-oriented large-scale ice models which aim at physically simulating calving and fracture processes.
机译：基底裂缝可能在确定裂谷的位置和传播以及冰山尺寸方面起着重要的先驱作用。例如，最近从南极洲的Thwaites Glacier劈开的冰山与表面起伏具有相同的宽度，从而加强了基底裂缝，裂谷和产犊之间的联系。我们探索了一种估计冰架和冰流接地线上形成的基底裂缝高度的新颖方法。我们采用薄弹性梁（TEB）公式和拉伸屈服准则来捕获接地线处弯曲冰的物理性质。在罗斯冰架的Siple海岸地区，基底裂隙高度的观测结果与模型预测值相吻合。我们发现，TEB方法在低应变率区域最准确。我们还测试了南极其他地区的方法，以生成接地线基底裂缝的量级图，并假设假定基底裂缝按时空序列发育并向下游平移，发现与报告的观测结果基本一致。该方法在计算上便宜，并且可以相对容易地实施于旨在物理模拟崩塌和破裂过程的面向破坏的大型冰模型中。

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