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An experimental study for syndromic surveillance using OTC sales

机译：使用OTC销售进行症状监测的实验研究

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摘要

OBJECTIVES : We analyzed the possibility of using sales data on over-the-counter (OTC) medicine in syndromic surveillance for early detection and/or prediction of influenza pandemics. METHODS : Data who collected on daily November 2003-April 2004 sales of common cold medication commercially obtained from 600 pharmacies in Japan enrolled in reporting throughout the 2003/04 influenza season. OTC sales data were compared to daily influenza incidence data to determine correlations and predictability. Data included Sentinel Surveillance of influenza, National Surveillance of Dally Influenza Outpatients (Daily Case Reporting: DCR), and Mailing-List-Based Influenza Epidemic Database (MLflu). RESULTS : The seasonal influenza epidemic peak for 2003-2004 was observed on January 30, February 1, and February 2 for sentinel surveillance, DCR, and MLflu. Sales peaks of OTC medicines occured twice in 2003-2004 season, once at the end of the year and once on January 27. Peak OTC sales for common cold medication per pharmacy were preceded by 18, 21, and 13 days for sentinel surveillance, DCR, and MLflu. OTC sales successfully explained 74-85% in the variation of influenza incidence which is interpretable as sufficient power of explanation. CONCLUSIONS : OTC sales proved to be a good indicator of real-time surveillance for influenza epidemics. Further analysis on multiyear data is needed to demonstrate the robustness of results. To confirm the advantage in the system of real-time syndromic surveillance, it is also necessary to check explanatory power of OTC sales on the variation of influenza incidence with prospective datasets. Infectious Diseases
机译：目的：我们分析了将非处方药（OTC）的销售数据用于综合征监测以早期发现和/或预测流感大流行的可能性。方法：2003年11月至2004年4月每天从日本600家药房商业购得的普通感冒药的销售量收集的数据纳入了整个2003/04流感季节的报告。将OTC销售数据与每日流感发生率数据进行比较，以确定相关性和可预测性。数据包括流感前哨监测，全国Dally流感门诊监测（每日病例报告：DCR）和基于邮件列表的流感流行数据库（MLflu）。结果：在1月30日，2月1日和2月2日观察到了前哨监视，DCR和MLflu的2003-2004年季节性流感流行高峰。在2003-2004年度，OTC药品的销售高峰出现过两次，一次是在年底，一次是1月27日。在每个药房，普通感冒药的OTC高峰销售出现在前哨监控DCR的18、21和13天之前。和MLflu。 OTC销售成功地解释了流感发生率变化中的74-85％，这可以解释为足够的解释力。结论：场外交易被证明是实时监测流行性感冒的良好指标。需要对多年数据进行进一步分析，以证明结果的可靠性。为了确认实时症状监测系统的优势，还需要使用前瞻性数据集检查OTC销售对流感发病率变化的解释力。传染性疾病

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