...
  • 主题
高级搜索  >
历史搜索 清空历史
首页> 外文期刊>Climatic Change >Breaks and unit roots in global and hemispheric temperatures: an updated analysis
【24h】

Breaks and unit roots in global and hemispheric temperatures: an updated analysis

机译：全球和半球温度的断裂和单位根源：最新分析

获取原文
获取原文并翻译 | 示例
           
页面导航
  • 摘要
  • 著录项
  • 相似文献
  • 相关主题

摘要

The unit root testing within a breaking trend framework for global and hemispheric temperatures of Gay-Garcia, Estrada and Sanchez Clim Chang 94:333-349, 2009 is extended in two directions: first, the extended HadCRUT3 temperature series from Brohan et al. J Geophys Res 111:D12106, 2006 are used and, second, new breaking trend estimators and unit root tests are employed, along with direct modelling of breaking trend and unit root processes for the series. Some differences to the results of Gay-Garcia et al. are found: break dates are shifted to 1976 for global and northern hemisphere temperatures and to 1964 for the southern hemisphere. Although the results are somewhat ambiguous, global and northern hemisphere temperatures are probably best modelled by unit root processes with a break in drift, while southern hemisphere temperatures follow a breaking trend process with stationary fluctuations about this trend. Irrespective of the models selected, there is little evidence of trend warming before the breaks, i.e., until the third quarter of the 20th century, and after the breaks northern hemisphere and global trend temperatures warm quicker than in the southern hemisphere, the range being between 0.01 and 0.02 A degrees C per annum.
机译：在全球和半球Gay-Garcia，Estrada和Sanchez Clim Chang 94：333-349，2009年的全球和半球温度的突破趋势框架内，单位根测试从两个方向扩展：首先，来自Brohan等人的扩展的HadCRUT3温度序列。使用了《 J Geophys Res 111：D12106，2006》，其次，使用了新的断裂趋势估计器和单位根检验，以及对该系列断裂趋势和单位根过程的直接建模。与Gay-Garcia等人的结果有些差异。发现：全球和北半球温度的休息日期移至1976，南半球的休息日期移至1964。尽管结果有些模棱两可，但全球和北半球温度可能最好用单位根过程来模拟，且漂移会发生变化，而南半球温度会遵循一个断裂趋势过程，并且该趋势会出现固定波动。不管选择哪种模型，几乎没有证据表明爆发前的趋势变暖，即直到20世纪第三季度，以及破裂后北半球和全球趋势温度变暖的速度都比南半球快。每年0.01和0.02 A摄氏度。

著录项

相似文献

  • 外文文献
  • 中文文献
  • 专利
获取原文

客服邮箱：kefu@zhangqiaokeyan.com

京公网安备：11010802029741号 ICP备案号：京ICP备15016152号-6 六维联合信息科技 (北京) 有限公司©版权所有

  • 客服微信

  • 服务号