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Scenarios with MIT integrated global systems model: significant global warming regardless of different approaches

机译：MIT集成全球系统模型的场景：无论采取何种方法，全球变暖现象严重

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A wide variety of scenarios for future development have played significant roles in climate policy discussions. This paper presents projections of greenhouse gas (GHG) concentrations, sea level rise due to thermal expansion and glacial melt, oceanic acidity, and global mean temperature increases computed with the MIT Integrated Global Systems Model (IGSM) using scenarios for twenty-first century emissions developed by three different groups: intergovernmental (represented by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change), government (represented by the U.S. government Climate Change Science Program) and industry (represented by Royal Dutch Shell plc). In all these scenarios the climate system undergoes substantial changes. By 2100, the CO2 concentration ranges from 470 to 1020 ppm compared to a 2000 level of 365 ppm, the CO2-equivalent concentration of all greenhouse gases ranges from 550 to 1780 ppm in comparison to a 2000 level of 415 ppm, oceanic acidity changes from a current pH of around 8 to a range from 7.63 to 7.91, in comparison to a pH change from a preindustrial level by 0.1 unit. The global mean temperature increases by 1.8 to 7.0A degrees C relative to 2000. Such increases will require considerable adaptation of many human systems and will leave some aspects of the earth's environment irreversibly changed. Thus, the remarkable aspect of these different approaches to scenario development is not the differences in detail and philosophy but rather the similar picture they paint of a world at risk from climate change even if there is substantial effort to reduce emissions.
机译：各种未来发展方案在气候政策讨论中发挥了重要作用。本文介绍了温室气体（GHG）浓度，由于热膨胀和冰川融化引起的海平面上升，海洋酸度以及使用MIT综合全球系统模型（IGSM）使用二十一世纪排放情景计算的全球平均温度升高的预测由三个不同的小组开发：政府间（由政府间气候变化专门委员会代表），政府（由美国政府气候变化科学计划代表）和工业（由荷兰皇家壳牌公司代表）。在所有这些情况下，气候系统都会发生重大变化。到2100年，CO2浓度范围从470至1020 ppm，而2000年水平为365 ppm，所有温室气体的CO2当量浓度范围为550至1780 ppm，而2000年水平为415 ppm，海洋酸度从与工业化前水平的pH值变化0.1个单位相比，当前的pH值约为8，范围为7.63至7.91。与2000年相比，全球平均温度升高了1.8到7.0A摄氏度。这种升高将需要许多人类系统的适应，并且将使地球环境的某些方面发生不可逆转的变化。因此，这些不同的方案开发方法的显着方面不是细节和理念上的差异，而是他们描绘出的一个相似的画面，即即使人们在努力减少排放量的情况下，也面临着气候变化的威胁。

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