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European summer climate variability in a heterogeneous multi-model ensemble.

机译：欧洲夏季气候多变性综合模型中的多变性。

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摘要

Recent results from an enhanced greenhouse-gas scenario over Europe suggest that climate change might not only imply a general mean warming at the surface, but also a pronounced increase in interannual surface temperature variability during the summer season (Schar et al., Nature 427:332-336, 2004). It has been proposed that the underlying physical mechanism is related to land surface-atmosphere interactions. In this study we expand the previous analysis by including results from a heterogeneous ensemble of 11 high-resolution climate models from the PRUDENCE project. All simulations considered comprise 30-year control and enhanced greenhouse-gas scenario periods. While there is considerable spread in the models' ability to represent the observed summer variability, all models show some increase in variability for the scenario period, confirming the main result of the previous study. Averaged over a large-scale Central European domain, the models simulate an increase in the standard deviation of summer mean temperatures between 20 and 80%. The amplification occurs predominantly over land points and is particularly pronounced for surface temperature, but also evident for precipitation. It is also found that the simulated changes in Central European summer conditions are characterized by an emergence of dry and warm years, with early and intensified depletion of root-zone soil moisture. There is thus some evidence that the change in variability may be linked to the dynamics of soil-moisture storage and the associated feedbacks on the surface energy balance and precipitation..
机译：欧洲温室气体情景增强的最新结果表明，气候变化不仅可能意味着地表普遍变暖，而且夏季夏季的年际表面温度变化也明显增加（Schar等，Nature 427： 332-336，2004）。已经提出，潜在的物理机制与土地表面-大气相互作用有关。在本研究中，我们通过包括PRUDENCE项目的11种高分辨率气候模型的异类集合的结果来扩展先前的分析。考虑的所有模拟包括30年的控制和增加的温室气体情景时期。尽管模型代表观测到的夏季变异性的能力有相当大的差异，但所有模型都显示出情景期内变异性的增加，这证实了先前研究的主要结果。这些模型在大型中欧地区进行平均，模拟了夏季平均温度标准偏差在20％到80％之间的增加。扩增主要发生在陆地点，表面温度特别明显，但降水也很明显。还发现中欧夏季条件的模拟变化以干旱和温暖年份的出现为特征，并且根区土壤水分的早期和加剧耗竭。因此，有一些证据表明，变异性的变化可能与土壤水分存储的动态以及表面能平衡和降水的相关反馈有关。

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