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Long-term range recession and the persistence of caribou in the taiga

机译：长期衰退和针叶林中驯鹿的持续存在

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摘要

Spatial patterns can help in understanding the decline and future prospects of threatened species, but the dynamics of range retraction have not been applied to these fundamental questions. I analyzed long-term changes in occupancy by taiga-dwelling caribou (Rangifer tarandus caribou) to estimate their rate of disappearance and time to extirpation in Ontario, Canada. Patterns of range recession, 1880-1990, indicated that half of historic woodland caribou range has been lost, a rate of disappearance of 34,800 km 2 per decade, and a northward range recession of 34 km per decade. The mean metapopulation density, the abundance of discrete winter groups, was one group per 1,900 km 2, suggesting an average loss of 18 caribou wintering areas per decade during this period. There was a strong coincidence between the recent southern limits of caribou occupancy and the northern front of forest harvesting, implying an anthropogenic agent of decline. The estimated time to extirpation of forest-dwelling caribou in Ontario, inferred from the sustained rate of disappearance, was 91 years (95% confidence interval: 57-149 years). The persistence of woodland caribou may depend on spatial separation from human incursion. [References: 45]
机译：空间格局可以帮助了解受威胁物种的减少和未来前景，但是范围缩小的动态尚未应用于这些基本问题。我分析了居住在美洲针茅（Taiga）的驯鹿（Rangifer tarandus驯鹿）的长期居住变化，以估计它们在加拿大安大略省的消失速度和灭绝时间。 1880-1990年的山脉衰退模式表明，历史上的林地驯鹿山脉已经消失了一半，每十年减少34,800 km 2的消失率，以及每十年34公里的向北衰退。平均种群密度，即不连续的冬季种群的数量，是每1900 km 2一组，这表明在此期间，每十年平均损失18个北美驯鹿冬季区域。在最近的南部驯鹿栖息地极限与森林采伐的北部锋线之间有很强的巧合，这意味着人为因素在减少。从持续消失的速度推断，安大略省灭绝森林驯鹿的时间为91年（95％置信区间：57-149年）。林地驯鹿的持久性可能取决于人类入侵的空间分隔。 [参考：45]

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