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首页> 外文期刊>Conservation Biology >Inferring Extinction of Mammals from Sighting Records, Threats, and Biological Traits
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Inferring Extinction of Mammals from Sighting Records, Threats, and Biological Traits

机译：从目击记录，威胁和生物特征推断哺乳动物的灭绝

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For species with five or more sightings, quantitative techniques exist to test whether a species is extinct on the basis of distribution of sightings. However, 70% of purportedly extinct mammals are known from fewer than five sightings, and such models do not include some important indicators of the likelihood of extinction such as threats, biological traits, search effort, and demography. Previously, we developed a quantitative method that we based on species' traits in which we used Cox proportional hazards regression to calculate the probability of rediscovery of species regarded as extinct. Here, we used two versions of the Cox regression model to determine the probability of extinction in purportedly extinct mammals and compared the results of these two models with those of stationary Poisson, nonparametric, and Weibull sighting-distribution models. For mammals with five or more sightings, the stationary Poisson model categorized all but two critically endangered (flagged as possibly extinct) species in our data set as extinct, and results with this model were consistent with current categories of the International Union for the Conservation of Nature. The scores of probability of rediscovery for individual species in one version of our Cox regression model were correlated with scores assigned by the stationary Poisson model. Thus, we used this Cox regression model to determine the probability of extinction of mammals with sparse records. On the basis of the Cox regression model, the most likely mammals to be rediscovered were the Montane monkey-faced bat (Pteralopex pulchra), Armenian myotis (Myotis hajastanicus), Alcorn's pocket gopher (Pappogeomys alcorni), and Wimmer's shrew (Crocidura wimmeri). The Cox model categorized two species that have recently disappeared as extinct: the baiji (Lipotes vexillifer) and the Christmas Island pipistrelle (Pipistrellus murrayi). Our new method can be used to test whether species with few records or recent last-sighting dates are likely to be extinct.
机译：对于具有五个或五个以上目击点的物种，存在定量技术来根据目击点的分布来检验某个物种是否灭绝。然而，从不到五次的目击中就知道了70％的据称已灭绝的哺乳动物，并且这种模型不包括灭绝可能性的一些重要指标，例如威胁，生物学特征，搜寻努力和人口统计。以前，我们开发了一种基于物种特征的定量方法，在该方法中，我们使用了Cox比例风险回归来计算被视为灭绝的物种的重新发现概率。在这里，我们使用了两个版本的Cox回归模型来确定据称已灭绝的哺乳动物灭绝的可能性，并将这两个模型的结果与固定泊松，非参数和威布尔观测分布模型的结果进行了比较。对于有五个或五个以上目击事件的哺乳动物，固定泊松模型将我们数据集中除两个极度濒危（标记为可能灭绝）物种之外的所有物种都归类为灭绝，并且该模型的结果与国际自然保护联盟的分类一致。性质。在我们的Cox回归模型的一个版本中，单个物种重新发现的概率得分与固定泊松模型分配的得分相关。因此，我们使用这种Cox回归模型来确定稀疏记录的哺乳动物灭绝的可能性。根据Cox回归模型，最可能被重新发现的哺乳动物是Montane猴脸蝙蝠（Pteralopex pulchra），亚美尼亚Myotis（Myotis hajastanicus），Alcorn的袋鼠（Pappogeomys alcorni）和Wimmer的rew（Crocidura wimmeri）。 。 Cox模型对最近消失的两种物种进行了分类：百吉（Lipotes vexillifer）和圣诞岛小鹦鹉（Pipistrellus murrayi）。我们的新方法可用于测试记录很少或最近目睹的物种是否已灭绝。

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