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首页> 外文期刊>Behavioral sciences & the law >Recidivism in Female Offenders: PCL-R Lifestyle Factor and VRAG Show Predictive Validity in a German Sample
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Recidivism in Female Offenders: PCL-R Lifestyle Factor and VRAG Show Predictive Validity in a German Sample

机译：女犯累犯：PCL-R生活方式因素和VRAG在德国样本中显示出预测的有效性

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摘要

A clear and structured approach to evidence-based and gender-specific risk assessment of violence in female offenders is high on political and mental health agendas. However, most data on the factors involved in risk-assessment instruments are based on data of male offenders. The aim of the present study was to validate the use of the Psychopathy Checklist Revised (PCL-R), the HCR-20 and the Violence Risk Appraisal Guide (VRAG) for the prediction of recidivism in German female offenders. This study is part of the Munich Prognosis Project (MPP). It focuses on a subsample of female delinquents (n=80) who had been referred for forensic-psychiatric evaluation prior to sentencing. The mean time at risk was 8 years (SD=5 years; range: 1-18 years). During this time, 31% (n=25) of the female offenders were reconvicted, 5% (n=4) for violent and 26% (n=21) for non-violent re-offenses. The predictive validity of the PCL-R for general recidivism was calculated. Analysis with receiver-operating characteristics revealed that the PCL-R total score, the PCL-R antisocial lifestyle factor, the PCL-R lifestyle factor and the PCL-R impulsive and irresponsible behavioral style factor had a moderate predictive validity for general recidivism (area under the curve, AUC=0.66, p=0.02). The VRAG has also demonstrated predictive validity (AUC=0.72, p=0.02), whereas the HCR-20 showed no predictive validity. These results appear to provide the first evidence that the PCL-R total score and the antisocial lifestyle factor are predictive for general female recidivism, as has been shown consistently for male recidivists. The implications of these findings for crime prevention, prognosis in women, and future research are discussed.
机译：在政治和精神卫生议程中，采用清晰，结构化的方法来对女性罪犯中的暴力进行基于证据和针对特定性别的风险评估非常重要。但是，有关风险评估工具所涉及因素的大多数数据都是基于男性罪犯的数据。本研究的目的是验证修订的《精神病学检查表》（PCL-R），HCR-20和《暴力风险评估指南》（VRAG）在预测德国女性罪犯累犯中的作用。这项研究是慕尼黑预后计划（MPP）的一部分。它着重于女性罪犯的子样本（n = 80），这些妇女在宣判前已被转介法医精神病学评估。平均风险时间为8年（SD = 5年;范围：1-18年）。在此期间，重新定罪的女性罪犯有31％（n = 25），暴力罪犯有5％（n = 4），非暴力罪犯有26％（n = 21）。计算了PCL-R对一般累犯的预测有效性。具有接收者操作特征的分析表明，PCL-R总分，PCL-R反社会生活方式因素，PCL-R生活方式因素和PCL-R冲动和不负责任的行为风格因素对一般累犯具有一定的预测效度（区域在曲线下，AUC = 0.66，p = 0.02）。 VRAG还显示出预测有效性（AUC = 0.72，p = 0.02），而HCR-20没有显示出预测有效性。这些结果似乎提供了第一个证据，即PCL-R总分和反社会生活方式因素对于一般女性累犯是可预测的，正如男性累累者始终如一地表明的那样。讨论了这些发现对预防犯罪，妇女预后以及未来研究的意义。

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