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Spatiotemporal trends of illegal activities from ranger-collected data in a Ugandan national park

机译：来自乌干达国家公园的游骑兵收集的数据中的非法活动的时空趋势

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Within protected areas, biodiversity loss is often a consequence of illegal resource use. Understanding the patterns and extent of illegal activities is therefore essential for effective law enforcement and prevention of biodiversity declines. We used extensive data, commonly collected by ranger patrols in many protected areas, and Bayesian hierarchical models to identify drivers, trends, and distribution of multiple illegal activities within the Queen Elizabeth Conservation Area (QECA), Uganda. Encroachment (e.g., by pastoralists with cattle) and poaching of noncommercial animals (e.g., snaring bushmeat) were the most prevalent illegal activities within the QECA. Illegal activities occurred in different areas of the QECA. Poaching of noncommercial animals was most widely distributed within the national park. Overall, ecological covariates, although significant, were not useful predictors for occurrence of illegal activities. Instead, the location of illegal activities in previous years was more important. There were significant increases in encroachment and noncommercial plant harvesting (nontimber products) during the study period (1999-2012). We also found significant spatiotemporal variation in the occurrence of all activities. Our results show the need to explicitly model ranger patrol effort to reduce biases from existing uncorrected or capture per unit effort analyses. Prioritization of ranger patrol strategies is needed to target illegal activities; these strategies are determined by protected area managers, and therefore changes at a site-level can be implemented quickly. These strategies should also be informed by the location of past occurrences of illegal activity: the most useful predictor of future events. However, because spatial and temporal changes in illegal activities occurred, regular patrols throughout the protected area, even in areas of low occurrence, are also required.
机译：在保护区内，生物多样性的丧失往往是非法资源使用的结果。因此，了解非法活动的方式和程度对于有效执法和防止生物多样性下降至关重要。我们使用了广泛的数据，这些数据通常是由许多保护区的巡逻员巡逻收集的，并且使用贝叶斯层次模型来确定乌干达伊丽莎白女王保护区（QECA）内多种非法活动的驱动因素，趋势和分布。在QECA中，最常见的非法活动是侵害（例如，牧民养牛）和偷猎非商业性动物（例如，刺杀食用森林猎物）。在QECA的不同区域发生了非法活动。在国家公园内，盗猎非商业性动物的情况最为广泛。总体而言，生态协变量虽然很重要，但对于非法活动的发生并不是有用的预测指标。相反，过去几年中非法活动的地点更为重要。在研究期间（1999-2012年），侵占和非商业性植物收获（非木材产品）显着增加。我们还发现所有活动的发生都存在明显的时空变化。我们的结果表明，需要对游骑兵巡逻工作进行显式建模，以减少来自现有未校正或每单位工作量捕获的偏差。需要优先安排巡警的巡逻策略，以打击非法活动;这些策略由保护区管理者决定，因此可以快速实施站点级别的更改。还应通过过去发生的非法活动的位置来告知这些策略：这是未来事件的最有用的预测器。但是，由于非法活动发生了时空变化，因此也需要在整个保护区进行定期巡逻，即使在发生率低的地区也要定期巡逻。

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