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Does the protected area network preserve bird species of conservation concern in a rapidly changing climate?

机译：保护区网络是否在快速变化的气候中保存了需要保护的鸟类？

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Species ranges are expected to move polewards following the changing climate, which poses novel challenges to the protected area network, particularly at northern latitudes. Here we study how well protected areas are likely to sustain populations of birds of conservation concern under a changing climate in northern Europe, in Finland. We fitted bioclimatic envelope models generated for 100 bird species to climate scenario data for the years 2051-2080 and three alternative emission scenarios in a 10-km grid system to predict changes in the species probability of occurrence. We related the projected changes in the climatic suitability to the amount of protected preferred habitat for the study species in the 10-km grid cells, and based on the cover of four main CORINE Land Cover classes in each conservation area in Finland. The probability of occurrence of all species (except marshland birds) decreased according to all scenarios, the decline being greatest in southern and smallest in northern boreal zones. This decline was slightly greater in unprotected than in protected areas for species of forests, mires and mountain habitats. The climatically suitable areas for the species were predicted to shift northwards, but the potential gain of southern species of conservation concern appears not to compensate for the loss of northern species. Thus, a representative protected area network is needed in all boreal zones. Overall, our results show that species-specific habitat preferences and habitat availability should be taken into account when assessing the efficiency of a protected area network in a changing climate.Digital Object Identifier http://dx.doi.org/10.1007/s10531-012-0423-y
机译：随着气候变化，物种范围有望向极移，这给保护区网络带来了新的挑战，特别是在北纬地区。在这里，我们研究了在北欧芬兰气候变化的情况下，保护区如何能够很好地维持受保护鸟类的数量。我们将针对2051-2080年的100种鸟类产生的生物气候包络模型与2051-2080年的气候情景数据以及10公里网格系统中的三种替代排放情景进行拟合，以预测物种发生概率的变化。我们将气候适应性的预计变化与10公里网格单元中研究物种受保护的首选栖息地的数量相关联，并基于芬兰每个保护区中四种主要的CORINE土地覆被类别的覆盖率。在所有情况下，所有物种（沼泽地鸟类除外）的发生概率均下降，南部地区下降最大，北部北方地区下降最小。在未受保护的森林，泥潭和山区生境物种的下降幅度略大于在受保护地区。据预测，该物种在气候上的适宜区域将向北移动，但受保护的南部物种的潜在收益似乎无法弥补北部物种的损失。因此，在所有北方地区都需要一个有代表性的保护区网络。总体而言，我们的结果表明，在评估气候变化环境下保护区网络的效率时，应考虑特定物种的栖息地偏好和栖息地的可用性。数字对象标识符http://dx.doi.org/10.1007/s10531- 012-0423-y

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