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Early action on Paris Agreement allows for more time to change energy systems

机译：关于巴黎协议的早期行动允许更多时间改变能源系统

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The IMAGE integrated assessment model was used to develop a set of scenarios to evaluate the Nationally Determined Contributions (NDCs) submitted by Parties under the Paris Agreement. The scenarios project emissions and energy system changes under (i) current policies, (ii) implementation of the NDCs, and (iii) various trajectories to a radiative forcing level of 2.8 W/m(2) in 2100, which gives a probability of about two thirds to limit warming to below 2 A degrees C. The scenarios show that a cost-optimal pathway from 2020 onwards towards 2.8 W/m(2) leads to a global greenhouse gas emission level of 38 gigatonne CO2 equivalent (GtCO(2)eq) by 2030, equal to a reduction of 20% compared to the 2010 level. The NDCs are projected to lead to 2030 emission levels of 50 GtCO(2)eq, which is still an increase compared to the 2010 level. A scenario that achieves the 2.8 W/m(2) forcing level in 2100 from the 2030 NDC level requires more rapid transitions after 2030 to meet the forcing target. It shows an annual reduction rate in greenhouse gas emissions of 4.7% between 2030 and 2050, rapidly phasing out unabated coal-fired power plant capacity, more rapid scale-up of low-carbon energy, and higher mitigation costs. A bridge scenario shows that enhancing the ambition level of NDCs before 2030 allows for a smoother energy system transition, with average annual emission reduction rates of 4.5% between 2030 and 2050, and more time to phase out coal capacity.
机译：图像综合评估模型用于制定一系列情景，以评估由巴黎协议下缔约方提交的国家确定的捐款（NDC）。方案项目排放和能源系统根据（i）当前政策，（ii）NDC的执行情况，（iii）在2100年的辐射强制级别为2.8 W / m（2）的各种轨迹，这给出了概率大约三分之二到2℃下降到2℃。方案表明，从2020年向2.8 W / m（2）的成本最佳途径导致38千兆藤二氧化碳等效物的全球温室气体排放水平（GTCO（2 ）EQ）到2030年，与2010年水平相比，等于20％的减少。预计NDCS将导致2030年的50 GTCO（2）欧元的排放水平，与2010年水平相比仍然增加。从2030年NDC级别实现2100中的2.8 W / M（2）强制级别的场景需要在2030年后更快地过渡，以满足强制目标。它显示了每年减少温室气体排放量，在2030年至2050年间4.7％，迅速逐步逐步淘汰未扩展的燃煤电厂能力，低碳能源的速度更快，减缓成本更高。桥式场景表明，在2030年之前增强了NDC的野心水平，允许更平滑的能量系统过渡，平均年减排率为4.5％，介于2030和2050之间，而逐步淘汰煤炭能力。

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