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Effects of economics and demographics on global fisheries sustainability

机译：经济学和人口统计学对全球渔业可持续性的影响

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A good understanding of social factors that lead to marine ecological change is important to developing sustainable global fisheries. We used balanced panel models and conducted cross-national time-series analyses (1970-2010) of 122 nations to examine how economic prosperity and population growth affected the sustainability of marine ecosystems. We used catches in economic exclusive zone (EEZ); mean trophic level of fishery landings (MTL); primary production required to sustain catches (expressed as percentage of local primary production [%PPR]); and an index of ecosystem overfishing (i.e., the loss in secondary production index [L index]) as indicators of ecological change in marine ecosystems. The EEZ catch, % PPR, and L index declined gradually after gross domestic product (GDP) per capita reached $15,000, $14,000, and $19,000, respectively, and MTL increased steadily once GDP per capita exceeded $20,000. These relationships suggest that economic growth and biodiversity conservation are compatible goals. However, increasing human populations would degrade marine ecosystems. Specifically, a doubling of human population caused an increase in the % PPR of 17.1% and in the L index of 0.0254 and a decline in the MTL of 0.176. A 1% increase in human population resulted in a 0.744% increase in EEZ catch. These results highlight the importance of considering social and economic factors in developing sustainable fisheries management policy.
机译：对导致海洋生态变革的社会因素的良好理解对发展可持续的全球渔业是重要的。我们使用了平衡面板模型，并进行了122个国家的跨国时间序列分析（1970-2010），以研究经济繁荣和人口增长如何影响海洋生态系统的可持续性。我们在经济专区（EEZ）中使用捕获;渔业着陆（MTL）的平均营养水平;维持捕获所需的主要生产（表达为当地初级生产的百分比[％PPR]）;和生态系统过度捕捞指数（即，二次生产指数[L指数]的损失）作为海洋生态系统生态变化的指标。 EEZ捕获，％PPR和L指数在国内生产总值（GDP）均可达到15,000美元，14,000美元和19,000美元后逐渐下降，并且MTL每人均GDP稳步增长，每款均超过20,000美元。这些关系表明，经济增长和生物多样性保护是兼容目标。然而，增加人口的人口将降低海洋生态系统。具体而言，人口加倍引起17.1％的％PPR增加，在L指数为0.0254，下降0.176。人群增加1％导致EEZ捕获量增加0.744％。这些结果突出了考虑社会和经济因素在发展可持续渔业管理政策方面的重要性。

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