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Effects of uncertainty and farmers' risk aversion on optimal N fertilizer supply in wheat production in Germany

机译：不确定性和农民风险厌恶对德国小麦产量的最佳氮肥供应的影响

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摘要

The role of nitrogen (N) fertilizer in mitigating economic risks in agriculture is under debate with contrasting views. This study contributes to an analysis of the economic response in wheat production to N fertilizer with respect to price premium structures for grain qualities from eight field experiments across Germany. Optimal N fertilizer levels were determined by different algorithms, based on average response, expected profit, and certainty equivalents with different attitudes toward risk aversion. The inherent uncertainty of yield response and crop quality response consistently resulted in higher expected profit with higher N rates than a management based on average response. Profit maximizing N rates based on maximum expected profit were substantially higher than economic optimal N rates based on average response data at 6/8 sites. Expected profit remained high over a large range of N fertilizer rates without a substantial downside risk and opportunity costs of deviating from optimal N rates within a range of 50 kg/ha. Protein price premiums reduce the riskiness of higher N rates and it is possible to apply higher N rates without increasing risk considerably.
机译：氮气（n）肥在农业经济风险中的作用是争论的争论，对比观点。本研究有助于分析德国八个田间实验的粮食品质价格优质结构对N肥对氮肥的经济反应。基于平均响应，预期利润和确定性等同于风险厌恶的不同态度，通过不同的算法确定最佳的N肥水平。产量响应和作物质量响应的固有不确定性一致导致较高的预期利润，率高于基于平均反应的管理。基于最高预期利润的利润最大化N利率基本上高于6/8位点的平均响应数据的经济最佳N率。预期利润在大范围的N肥料速率范围内仍然很高，而无需大幅下行风险和机会成本，偏离最佳N率，在50公斤/公顷的范围内。蛋白质价格溢价降低了较高率的危险性，并且可以在不增加风险的情况下施加更高的N个速率。

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  • 来源
    《Agricultural Systems》 |2019年第2019期|共10页
  • 作者

    Meyer-Aurich Andreas; Karatay Yusuf Nadi;

  • 作者单位

    Leibniz Inst Agr Engn &

    Bioecon ATB Dept Technol Assessment &

    Subst Cycles Max Eyth Allee 100 D-14469 Potsdam Germany;

    Leibniz Inst Agr Engn &

    Bioecon ATB Dept Technol Assessment &

    Subst Cycles Max Eyth Allee 100 D-14469 Potsdam Germany;

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  • 原文格式 PDF
  • 正文语种 eng
  • 中图分类 农业科学;
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