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首页> 外文期刊>Agricultural Water Management >Impacts of drought, food security policy and climate change on performance of irrigation schemes in Sub-saharan Africa: The case of Sudan
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Impacts of drought, food security policy and climate change on performance of irrigation schemes in Sub-saharan Africa: The case of Sudan

机译：干旱，粮食安全政策和气候变化对撒哈拉非洲灌溉计划绩效的影响：苏丹案件

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摘要

Owing to contradicted scientific results, trends in drought due to global warming have been assigned with medium confidence. Drought will likely continue inputting immense pressure on food security in fragile ecosystems like Sub-saharan Africa (SSA). As an adaptation measure to severe drought events since the 1980s, the overall goal of irrigated schemes (foreign exchange earnings) thus has been shifted to sustain food security. This study assessed the impacts of such drought-driven agricultural policy and future climate change on the performance of large irrigated schemes in SSA, with special emphasis on the Gezira scheme, GS (0.88 mha), Sudan. The optimized scenario of the baseline period, developed in GAMS (the general algebraic modeling system), showed that the expansion of food crops on the expensive of cash crops resulted in a reduction of 83 % in gross net benefits and loss of 63 % in irrigation water in the GS since the severe drought of 1984. The biased corrected rainfall and temperature outputs of three randomly selected regional climate models (RCMs) under unmitigated pathways (RCP 8.5), suggested increased rainfall of 40 mm, increased temperature of 3.3 degrees C and 5 % increase in reference evapotranspiration for the period 2040-2070, compared to the baseline (1960-1990). The predicted conditions experienced neither extreme drought nor extreme wet events; however, severe and moderately drought events remain a challenge up to 2060. Due to climate change and current water management practices, the FAO-Aquacrop predicted reductions in crop yields and water productivity, especially for cotton and sorghum of 40 and 29 % respectively. Optimized future crop scenarios indicate that food crops such as sorghum and wheat are not viable. Cash (cotton) and soil fertility maintenance crops (groundnuts) would be better for sustaining economic viability. The agricultural policy and water management practices thus should be revisited to keep pace with future climate changes.
机译：由于矛盾的科学成果，由于全球变暖导致的干旱趋势已经分配了中等信心。干旱可能会继续在撒哈拉以南非洲（SSA）等脆弱的生态系统中对食品安全的巨大压力。由于自20世纪80年代以来对严重干旱事件的适应措施，因此已转变灌溉计划（外汇收入）的总体目标以维持粮食安全。本研究评估了这种干旱驱动的农业政策和未来气候变化对SSA大型灌溉计划的绩效的影响，特别强调了Gezira计划，GS（0.88 MHA），苏丹。在Gams（一般代数建模系统）中开发的基线时期的优化方案表明，粮食作物的扩张昂贵的现金作物导致净净效益和灌溉中损失的83％减少了83％自1984年的严重干旱以来GS中的水。未经暗途径（RCP 8.5）下的三种随机选择的区域气候模型（RCMS）的偏置校正降雨量和温度输出，建议增加40毫米的降雨量，温度为3.3摄氏度与基线（1960-1990）相比，2040-2070期间参考蒸散量增加了5％。预测的条件既不经历过极端干旱也没有极端的潮湿事件;然而，严重和适度的干旱事件仍然是2060年的挑战。由于气候变化和当前的水管理实践，粮农组织 - 水上acrop预计作物产量和水生产率的降低，特别是棉花和高粱分别为40％和29％。优化的未来作物情景表明，高粱和小麦等食物作物不可行。现金（棉花）和土壤肥力维护作物（Gressnuts）将更适合维持经济可行性。因此，应重新审视农业政策和水管理惯例，以跟上未来的气候变化。

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