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Arctic shipping emissions inventories and future scenarios

机译：北极航运排放库存和未来情景

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This paper presents 5 km × 5 km Arctic emissions inventories of important greenhouse gases, black carbon and other pollutants under existing and future (2050) scenarios that account for growth of shipping in the region, potential diversion traffic through emerging routes, and possible emissions control measures. These high-resolution, geospatial emissions inventories for shipping can be used to evaluate Arctic climate sensitivity to black carbon (a short-lived climate forcing pollutant especially effective in accelerating the melting of ice and snow), aerosols, and gaseous emissions including carbon dioxide. We quantify ship emissions scenarios which are expected to increase as declining sea ice coverage due to climate change allows for increased shipping activity in the Arctic. A first-order calculation of global warming potential due to 2030 emissions in the high-growth scenario suggests that short-lived forcing of ～4.5 gigagrams of black carbon from Arctic shipping may increase global warming potential due to Arctic ships' CO_2 emissions (～42 000 gigagrams) by some 17% to 78%. The paper also presents maximum feasible reduction scenarios for black carbon in particular. These emissions reduction scenarios will enable scientists and policymakers to evaluate the efficacy and benefits of technological controls for black carbon, and other pollutants from ships.
机译：本文介绍了5公里×5公里的北极排放量重要的温室气体，黑碳和其他现有和未来污染物（2050）场景，该方案占该地区运输的增长，通过新兴路线的潜在转移流量，以及可能的排放控制措施。这些高分辨率，用于运输的地理空间排放清单可用于评估北极气候敏感性对黑碳（短暂的气候迫使污染物，特别有效地加速冰雪融化），气溶胶和包括二氧化碳的气态排放。我们量化预计由于气候变化引起的海冰覆盖率下降的船舶排放情景允许增加北极地运输活动。由于2030年高增长情景中的2030年排放量的一级计算，表明，由于北极航运，北极航运的〜4.5 gigagram的短暂强制迫使〜4.5千兆格可能会增加由于北极船舶的CO_2排放量的全球变暖潜力（〜42 000 gigagrams）约17％至78％。本文还介绍了特别是黑炭的最大可行性方案。这些排放的减少情景将使科学家和政策制定者能够评估黑碳技术控制的功效和益处，以及来自船舶的其他污染物。

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