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首页> 外文期刊>International journal of applied mechanics >Effects of violent political conflict on the supply, demand and fragmentation of fresh food markets
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Effects of violent political conflict on the supply, demand and fragmentation of fresh food markets

机译：暴力政治冲突对新鲜食品市场供求，需求和分散的影响

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Violent political conflict has been documented to have comprehensive adverse effects on economic activity and, thus, substantially harm social welfare. As conflict escalations are often reported to fragment economic space, we suggest an empirical framework which allows for estimating changes in the size of markets often split by frontlines. This approach uses a differentiated goods oligopoly model to separate effects of conflict intensity on consumer demand, costs of trade, market size, and market structure. We combine daily sales of apples in Hebron - one of the focal points of the Israeli-Palestinian conflict - and variables quantifying complementary aspects of conflict intensity. Conflict is found to suppress demand and affect competition more significantly than it increases costs of trading. Simulations indicate a 15% reduction in total daily consumption during conflict of high intensity while a pacification would yield a 20% welfare gain. This empirical framework allows disentangling the effects of conflict on food markets. The results suggest that relief policies should consider alleviating effects of fragmentation of economic space, e.g., by ensuring humanitarian corridors.
机译：已记录暴力政治冲突对经济活动具有全面的不利影响，从而大大危害了社会福利。随着冲突升级经常向碎片经济空间报告，我们建议了一个经验框架，允许估计市场大小的变化，这些框架通常由前线分裂。这种方法使用差异化的商品寡头垄断模型来分离冲突强度对消费者需求，贸易成本，市场规模和市场结构的影响。我们将苹果的日常销量联合在希伯伦 - 以色列 - 巴勒斯坦冲突的联络点之一 - 以及量化冲突强度的互补方面的变量。发现冲突抑制需求并影响竞争，比增加交易成本更大。模拟在高强度冲突期间，在高强度冲突期间减少15％，同时保持治疗，产生20％的福利收益。这种经验框架允许解开冲突对食品市场的影响。结果表明，救济政策应考虑减轻经济空间碎片的影响，例如，通过确保人道主义走廊。

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