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Impacts of climate change, weather extremes and alternative strategies in managed forests

机译：气候变化，天气极端和替代策略在管理林中的影响

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摘要

The growth rate of most tree species in boreal forests will increase with changing climate. This increase is counterbalanced by an increased risk of damage due to extreme weather events. It is believed that the risk of storm damage will increase over time, especially if forests continue to be managed as they are today. In this study, a new landscape-level hybrid forest growth model 3PG-Heureka was developed and simulations were performed to predict the damage caused by storm events in Kronoberg county, over a period of 91 years (2010-2100) with different alternative management regimes under various climatic scenarios (historic, RCP4.5 and RCP8.5). The results indicate that damage caused by storm events could drastically reduce the annual volume increment and annual net revenue obtained from forest landscapes if current forest management regimes are used. These problems can be reduced by adopting alternative management strategies involving avoiding thinning, shorter rotation periods and planting alternative tree species. Alternative management strategies could potentially improve annual volume increments and net revenue obtained while reducing storm-felling. Planting Scots pine instead of Norway spruce across the landscape to minimize storm damage is predicted to be less effective than reducing rotation periods.
机译：北方森林大多数树种种类的增长率将随着气候变化而增加。由于极端天气事件导致的损坏风险增加，这一增长是平衡的。据信风暴损伤的风险会随着时间的推移而增加，特别是如果森林继续按照今天的管理。在这项研究中，开发了一种新的景观级杂交林生长模型，开发了3PG-Heureka，并进行了模拟，以预测Kronoberg县的风暴事件造成的损害，超过91年（2010-2100），具有不同的替代管理制度在各种气候情景下（历史，RCP4.5和RCP8.5）。结果表明，如果使用当前的森林管理制度，风暴事件造成的损害可能会大大降低从森林景观获得的年度增量和年度净收入。通过采用涉及避免稀疏，较短的旋转周期和种植替代树种的替代管理策略，可以减少这些问题。替代管理策略可能会提高年度体积增量和净收入，同时减少风暴砍伐。种植苏格兰松树而不是挪威穿过景观，以尽量减少风暴损伤，预计比减少旋转周期更低。

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