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首页> 外文期刊>North American Journal of Fisheries Management >Estimating the Effects of Environmental Variables and Gear Type on the Detection and Occupancy of Large-River Fishes in a Standardized Sampling Program Using Multiseason Bayesian Mixture Models
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Estimating the Effects of Environmental Variables and Gear Type on the Detection and Occupancy of Large-River Fishes in a Standardized Sampling Program Using Multiseason Bayesian Mixture Models

机译:使用多学期贝叶斯混合模型估算环境变量和齿轮类型对标准化抽样计划中大型河流检测和占用的影响

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Sampling in non-wadeable rivers presents methodological challenges for monitoring fish species. Changing environmental conditions may affect the ability to accurately capture species (i.e., detection) and consequently may lead to inappropriate inferences on occupancy rates. We used hierarchical Bayesian multiseason mixture models to estimate occupancy and detection of 41 of 52 fish species in the Kankakee River, Illinois, by using data from a standardized monitoring program. Fish were sampled with AC boat electrofishing and shoreline seining over 7 years. Some centrarchids (e.g., Smallmouth Bass Micropterus dolomieu) were efficiently sampled by boat electrofishing, whereas most other species had low detection probabilities. Moderate changes in environmental conditions, such as water velocity and temperature, produced moderate changes in detection and occupancy. Generally, when species had high detection probabilities, changes in environmental conditions produced relatively small changes in the estimated detection probabilities. Our results also suggested that some sport fishes collected from rivers with only moderate environmental fluctuations are unlikely to produce strongly biased estimates of detection and occupancy among years. However, many species had detection probabilities that were low, imprecisely estimated, or both. Overall, we demonstrate that long-term fisheries monitoring can effectively detect some species at levels that are often relevant for management, but assessments of species with lower and more uncertain detection probabilities may not provide adequate information for management decisions. We recommend the use of sampling designs that allow the estimation of both detection and occupancy.
机译:非可行性河流中的抽样呈现出用于监测鱼类的方法论挑战。改变的环境条件可能会影响准确捕获物种(即,检测)的能力,因此可能导致占用率的不当推断。我们使用了来自标准化监测计划的数据来估算了伊利诺伊州Kankakee River,伊利诺伊州的52条鱼类中41种的占用和检测。用AC船电泳和海岸线在7年内取样鱼。一些CEMRARCRARCRARCRARCHIDS(例如,小型低音MICROPTERUS DOLOMIEU)被船舶电钻有效地采样,而大多数物种检测概率低。环境条件的适度变化,例如水速度和温度,产生中等的检测和占用变化。通常,当物种具有高的检测概率时,环境条件的变化产生了估计的检测概率的相对较小的变化。我们的研究结果还表明,一些河流中收集的体育鱼类,只有温和的环境波动,不太可能产生强烈偏向的检测和占用估计。然而,许多物种具有低,不精确的估计或两者的检测概率。总体而言,我们证明,长期渔业监测可以有效地检测通常对管理相关的水平的一些物种,但具有较低和更不确定的检测概率的物种的评估可能无法为管理决策提供足够的信息。我们建议使用采样设计,允许估计检测和占用。

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