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首页> 外文期刊>Hydrology and Earth System Sciences >Effects of land use/land cover and climate changes on surface runoff in a semi-humid and semi-arid transition zone in northwest China
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Effects of land use/land cover and climate changes on surface runoff in a semi-humid and semi-arid transition zone in northwest China

机译：土地利用/土地覆盖与气候变化对西北西北半干旱半干旱过渡带地表径流的影响

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摘要

Water resources, which are considerably affected by land use/land cover (LULC) and climate changes, are a key limiting factor in highly vulnerable ecosystems in arid and semi-arid regions. The impacts of LULC and climate changes on water resources must be assessed in these areas. However, conflicting results regarding the effects of LULC and climate changes on runoff have been reported in relatively large basins, such as the Jinghe River basin (JRB), which is a typical catchment (> 45 000 km(2)) located in a semi-humid and arid transition zone on the central Loess Plateau, northwest China. In this study, we focused on quantifying both the combined and isolated impacts of LULC and climate changes on surface runoff. We hypothesized that under climatic warming and drying conditions, LULC changes, which are primarily caused by intensive human activities such as the Grain for Green Program, will considerably alter runoff in the JRB. The Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT) was adopted to perform simulations. The simulated results indicated that although runoff increased very little between the 1970s and the 2000s due to the combined effects of LULC and climate changes, LULC and climate changes affected surface runoff differently in each decade, e.g., runoff increased with increased precipitation between the 1970s and the 1980s (precipitation contributed to 88% of the runoff increase). Thereafter, runoff decreased and was increasingly influenced by LULC changes, which contributed to 44% of the runoff changes between the 1980s and 1990s and 71% of the runoff changes between the 1990s and 2000s. Our findings revealed that large-scale LULC under the Grain for Green Program has had an important effect on the hydrological cycle since the late 1990s. Additionally, the conflicting findings regarding the effects of LULC and climate changes on runoff in relatively large basins are likely caused by uncertainties in hydrological simulations.
机译：受土地使用/陆地覆盖（LULC）和气候变化的水资源有很大影响，是干旱和半干旱地区高度脆弱的生态系统中的关键限制因素。这些领域必须评估Lulc和气候变化对水资源的影响。然而，在相对较大的盆地中报告了关于LULC和气候变化对径流影响的相互冲突的结果，例如景州河流域（JRB），这是位于半自动的典型集水区（> 45 000公里（2））中国西北部中央黄土高原的高尚和干旱过渡带。在这项研究中，我们专注于量化Lulc和气候变化对表面径流的合并和孤立影响。我们假设在气候变暖和干燥条件下，LULC变化，主要由绿色计划谷物等强化人类活动引起的，将大幅改变JRB中的径流。采用土壤和水评估工具（SWAT）进行模拟。模拟结果表明，虽然径流在20世纪70年代和2000年之间增加了20世纪70年代，但由于Lulc和气候变化的综合影响，在每十年中，Lulc和气候变化不同地影响表面径流，例如，径流增加了20世纪70年代之间的降水量增加20世纪80年代（降水量占径流增长的88％）。此后，径流减少，越来越受到LULC变化的影响，这导致了20世纪80年代和1990年代之间的径流变化的44％，以及20世纪90年代和2000年之间的径流变化的71％。我们的研究结果透露，自20世纪90年代后期以来，绿色计划谷物下的大型LULC对水文循环产生了重要影响。此外，关于Lulc和气候变化对相对大的盆地径流影响的冲突结果可能是水文模拟中的不确定性引起的。

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    Yin Jing; He Fan; Xiong Yu Jiu; Qiu Guo Yu;

  • 作者单位

    China Inst Water Resources &

    Hydropower State Key Lab Simulat &

    Regulat Water Cycle Rive Beijing 100038 Peoples R China;

    China Inst Water Resources &

    Hydropower State Key Lab Simulat &

    Regulat Water Cycle Rive Beijing 100038 Peoples R China;

    Sun Yat Sen Univ Sch Geog &

    Planning Dept Water Resource &

    Environments Guangzhou 510275 Guangdong Peoples R China;

    Peking Univ Sch Environm &

    Energy Shenzhen Engn Lab Water Desalinizat Renewable Ene Shenzhen 518055 Peoples R China;

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  • 正文语种 eng
  • 中图分类 水文科学（水界物理学）;
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