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首页> 外文期刊>Journal of hydrometeorology >Uncertainty of Hydrological Model Components in Climate Change Studies over Two Nordic Quebec Catchments
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Uncertainty of Hydrological Model Components in Climate Change Studies over Two Nordic Quebec Catchments

机译：两个北欧魁北克集水区气候变化研究水文模型组分的不确定性

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Projected climate change effects on hydrology are investigated for the 2041-60 horizon under the A2 emission scenarios using a multimodel approach over two snowmelt-dominated catchments in Canada. An ensemble of 105 members was obtained by combining seven snow models (SMs), five potential evapotrans-piration (PET) methods, and three hydrological model (HM) structures. The study was performed using high-resolution simulations from the Canadian Regional Climate Model (CRCM-15 km) driven by two members of the third-generation Canadian Coupled Global Climate Model (CGCM3). This study aims to compare various combinations of SM-PET-HM in terms of their ability to simulate streamflows under the current climate and to evaluate how they affect the assessment of the climate change-induced hydrological impacts at the catchment scale. The variability of streamflow response caused by the use of different SMs (degree-day versus degree-day/energy balance), PET methods (temperature-based versus radiation-based methods), and HM structures is evaluated, as well as the uncertainty due to the natural climate variability (CRCM inter-member variability). The hydroclimatic simulations cover 1961-90 in the present period and 2041-60 in the future period. The ensemble spread of the climate change signal on streamflow is large and varies with catchments. Using the variance decomposition on three hydrologic indicators, the HM structure was found to make the most substantial contribution to uncertainty, followed by the choice of the PET methods or natural climate variability, depending on the hydrologic indicator and the catchment. Snow models played a minor, almost negligible role in the assessment of the climate change impacts on streamflow for the study catchments.
机译：在A2排放场景下，在A2发射场景下，在加拿大两种雪地主导集水区的A2发射场景下调查了对水文的预计气候变化影响。通过组合七种雪模型（SMS），五个潜在的evapotrans-Pirts（PET）方法和三种水文模型（HM）结构来获得105个成员的集合。该研究采用加拿大区域气候模型（CRCM-15 km）的高分辨率模拟，由第三代加拿大全球气候模型（CGCM3）的两个成员驱动。本研究旨在使SM-PET-HM的各种组合在他们在目前的气候下模拟流出流出的能力，并评估它们如何影响气候变化诱导的流域的水文冲击的评估。评估了由不同SMS（学位与学位/能量平衡），宠物方法（基于温度为基于辐射的方法）和HM结构的流出响应的可变性，以及不确定性自然气候变化（CRCM间变异性）。在今时的循环模拟覆盖1961-90，未来期间2041-60。气候变化信号上的集合传播较大，随着集水器而变化。利用三种水文指标的方差分解，发现HM结构对不确定性做出了最大的贡献，然后选择了宠物方法或自然气候变化，具体取决于水文指示器和集水区。雪模型在评估气候变化对研究流域的流出的影响中发挥了较小的作用。

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