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A preliminary assessment of climate change impacts on sugarcane in Swaziland

机译：斯威士兰气候变化对甘蔗影响的初步评估

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The spatial and temporal impacts of climate change on irrigation water requirements and yield for sugarcane grown in Swaziland have been assessed, by combining the outputs from a general circulation model (HadCM3), a sugarcane crop growth model and a GIS. The CANEGRO model (embedded with the DSSAT program) was used to simulate the baseline and future cane net annual irrigation water requirements (IR sub(net)) and yield (t ha super(-1)) using a reference site and selected emissions scenario (SRES A2 and B2) for the 2050s (including CO sub(2)-fertilisation effects). The simulated baseline yields were validated against field data from 1980 to 1997. An aridity index was defined and used to correlate agroclimate variability against irrigation need to estimate the baseline and future irrigation water demand (volumetric). To produce a unit weight of sucrose equivalent to current optimum levels of production, future irrigation needs were predicted to increase by 20-22%. With CO sub(2)-fertilisation, the impacts of climate change are offset by higher crop yields, such that IR sub(net) is predicted to increase by 9%. The study showed that with climate change, the current peak capacity of existing irrigation schemes could fail to meet the predicted increases in irrigation demand in nearly 50% of years assuming unconstrained water availability.
机译：通过综合一般循环模型（HadCM3），甘蔗作物生长模型和GIS的输出，评估了气候变化对斯威士兰种植的甘蔗的灌溉水需求和产量的时空影响。 CANEGRO模型（嵌入DSSAT程序）用于使用参考站点和选定的排放情景模拟基线和未来的甘蔗净年度灌溉水需求量（IR sub（net））和产量（t ha super（-1）） （SRES A2和B2）在2050年代（包括CO sub（2）施肥效应）。根据1980年至1997年的田间数据对模拟的基准产量进行了验证。定义了干旱指数并将其用于与农业气候变化之间的相关性与灌溉需求相关，以估算基准和未来灌溉需水量（体积）。为了生产相当于当前最佳生产水平的单位重量蔗糖，预计未来的灌溉需求将增加20-22％。使用CO sub（2）施肥，气候变化的影响被更高的农作物产量所抵消，因此IR sub（net）预计将增加9％。该研究表明，随着气候变化，假设现有水量不受限制，现有灌溉计划的当前峰值容量可能无法满足近50％的预期灌溉需求增长。

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