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Epidemiological Models for Invasion and Persistence of Pathogens.

机译:病原体入侵和持久性的流行病学模型。

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Motivated by questions such as "Why do some diseases take off, while others die out?" and "How can we optimize the deployment of control methods," we introduce simple epidemiological concepts for the invasion and persistence of plant pathogens. An overarching modeling framework is then presented that can be used to analyze disease invasion and persistence at a range of scales from the microscopic to the regional. Criteria for invasion and persistence are introduced, initially for simple models of epidemics, and then for models with greater biological realism. Some ways in which epidemiological models are used to identify optimal strategies for the control of disease are discussed. Particular attention is given to the spatial structure of host populations and to the role of chance events in determining invasion and persistence of plant pathogens. Finally, three brief case studies are used to illustrate the practical applications of epidemiological theory to understand invasion and persistence of plant pathogens. These comprise long-term predictions for the persistence and control of Dutch elm disease; identification of methods to manage the spread of rhizomania on sugar beet in the U.K. by matching the scale of control with the spatial and temporal scales of the disease; and analysis of evolutionary change in virus control to identify risks of inadvertent selection for damaging virus strains.
机译:受到诸如“为什么某些疾病会消亡而另一些疾病消亡?”之类的问题的激励。以及“如何优化控制方法的部署”,我们介绍了简单的流行病学概念,以了解植物病原体的入侵和持久性。然后提出了一个总体建模框架,该框架可用于分析从微观到区域的一系列尺度上的疾病入侵和持久性。介绍了入侵和持久性的标准,首先是关于流行病的简单模型,然后是具有更大生物现实性的模型。讨论了使用流行病学模型确定控制疾病最佳策略的一些方法。特别关注寄主种群的空间结构以及偶然事件在确定植物病原体入侵和持久性中的作用。最后,通过三个简短的案例研究来说明流行病学理论在理解植物病原体入侵和持久性方面的实际应用。这些包括对荷兰榆树病持续存在和控制的长期预测;通过将控制规模与疾病的时空尺度相匹配,确定在英国甜菜上根瘤菌传播的方法;病毒控制的进化变化的分析,以识别无意间选择有害病毒株的风险。

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