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首页> 外文期刊>Interdisciplinary perspectives on infectious diseases >Assortativity and the Probability of Epidemic Extinction: A Case Study of Pandemic Influenza A (H1N1-2009)
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Assortativity and the Probability of Epidemic Extinction: A Case Study of Pandemic Influenza A (H1N1-2009)

机译：分类性和流行性灭绝的可能性：以甲型大流行性流感为例（H1N1-2009）

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Unlike local transmission of pandemic influenza A (H1N1-2009), which was frequently driven by school children, most cases identified in long-distance intranational and international travelers have been adults. The present study examines the relationship between the probability of temporary extmction and the age-dependent next-generation matrix, focusing on the impact of assortativity. Preferred mixing captures as a good approximation the assortativity of a heterogeneously mixing population. We show that the contribution of a nonmaintenance host (i.e., a host type which cannot sustain transmission on its own) to the risk of a major epidemic is greatly diminished as mixing patterns become more assortative, and in such a scenario, a higher proportion of non-maintenance hosts among index cases elevates the probability of extinction. Despite the presence of various other epidemiological factors that undoubtedly influenced the delay between first importations and the subsequent epidemic, these results suggest that the dominance of adults among imported cases represents one of the possible factors explaining the delays in geographic spread observed during the recent pandemic.
机译：与当地流行的甲型大流行性流感（H1N1-2009）经常由学童驱动的情况不同，在长途国内和国际旅行中发现的大多数病例都是成年人。本研究考察了临时灭绝的可能性与年龄相关的下一代矩阵之间的关系，重点是分类的影响。优选的混合很好地捕获了异质混合群体的分类性。我们发现，随着混合模式变得更加多样化，免维护宿主（即无法自行维持传播的宿主类型）对重大流行病的贡献大大降低，在这种情况下，索引案例中的非维护主机增加了灭绝的可能性。尽管存在其他各种流行病学因素，这些因素无疑影响了首次输入和随后流行之间的延迟，但这些结果表明，在输入病例中成年人的主导地位是解释最近流行期间观察到的地理传播延迟的可能因素之一。

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