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Tracking development paths: Monitoring driving forces and the impact of carbon-free energy sources in Spain

机译：跟踪发展路径：监控西班牙的驱动力和无碳能源的影响

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The evolution of the national development path has gravity in determining the future emissions outcomes of all nations. Deep reductions in emissions require a focus not just on energy and mitigation policy but on factors underlying this development. The Kaya identity has been recommended to track national progress with respect to sustainability and carbon emissions in the development path. This study applies an extended Kaya identity to the energy-related carbon emissions of Spain. Implemented through a divisia index decomposition annually from 1990 to 2011, it highlights the impact of factors such as affluence and energy intensity. A marked departure from previous studies is the separation of the effects of the carbon-free energy sources; both renewables and nuclear as fundamental mitigation measures. The results show that affluence and population have acted to increase emissions and energy intensity was increasing until recent years. Fuel substitution has acted to decrease emissions but while renewable energy has reduced emissions with the increasing importance of biomass, wind and solar, the decline in share of nuclear has acted to increase emissions. Implications for the development path and policy are discussed and lessons are relevant both for industrialised and industrialising nations. (C) 2015 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.
机译：国家发展道路的演变具有决定所有国家未来排放结果的重要性。大幅减少排放不仅需要关注能源和减缓政策，还需要关注这一发展的基础因素。建议使用Kaya身份来跟踪国家在发展道路上在可持续性和碳排放方面的进展。这项研究将扩展的Kaya身份应用于西班牙与能源相关的碳排放。它是通过1990年至2011年每年进行的divisia指数分解实施的，强调了富裕程度和能源强度等因素的影响。与以前的研究明显不同的是，分离无碳能源的影响。可再生能源和核能都是基本的缓解措施。结果表明，直到最近几年，富裕程度和人口数量一直在增加排放，能源强度也在增加。燃料替代已起到减少排放的作用，但是随着生物质，风能和太阳能重要性的提高，可再生能源已减少了排放，而核能份额的下降却增加了排放。讨论了发展路径和政策的含义，对工业化国家和工业化国家都具有借鉴意义。 （C）2015 Elsevier Ltd.保留所有权利。

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