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Simulating climate change impacts on fire frequency and vegetation dynamics in a Mediterranean-type ecosystem [Review]

机译：模拟气候变化对地中海型生态系统中火灾频率和植被动态的影响[评论]

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摘要

The impacts of climate change on Mediterranean-type ecosystems may result from complex interactions between direct effects on water stress and subsequent modifications in flammability and fire regime leading to changes in standing biomass and plant species composition. We analysed these interrelations through a simulation approach combining scenarios of climate change developed from GCM results and a multispecies functional model for vegetation dynamics, SIERRA. A fire risk procedure based on weekly estimates of vegetation water stress has been implemented. Using climate data from 1960 to 1997, simulations of a typical maquis woodland community have been performed as baseline and compared with two climate scenarios: a change in the rainfall regime alone, and changes in both rainfall and air temperature. Climate changes are defined by an increase in temperature, particularly in summer, and a change in the rainfall pattern leading to a decrease in low rainfall events, and an increase in intense rainfall events. The results illustrate the lack of drastic changes in the succession process, but highlight modifications in the water budget and in the length of the drought periods. Water stress lower than expected regarding statistics on the current climate is simulated, emphasizing a long-term new equilibrium of vegetation to summer drought but with a higher sensibility to rare events. Regarding fire frequency, climate changes tend to decrease the time interval between two successive fires from 20 to 16 years for the maquis shrubland and from 72 to 62 years in the forested stages. This increase in fire frequency leads to shrub-dominated landscapes, which accentuates the yield of water by additional deep drainage and runoff.
机译：气候变化对地中海型生态系统的影响可能是由于对水分胁迫的直接影响与随后的易燃性和火情变化之间的复杂相互作用所致，从而导致站立的生物量和植物物种组成发生变化。我们通过模拟方法分析了这些相互关系，这些方法结合了根据GCM结果得出的气候变化情景和植被动态多物种功能模型SIERRA。已经实施了基于每周估计的植物水分胁迫的火灾风险程序。使用1960年至1997年的气候数据，以典型的马奎斯林地群落为模拟对象，并与两种气候情景进行了比较：仅是降雨状态的变化，以及降雨和气温的变化。气候变化的定义是温度升高，特别是在夏季，降雨模式的变化导致低降雨事件减少，而强降雨事件增加。结果表明，演替过程中没有剧烈变化，但突出了水资源预算和干旱时期的变化。模拟了比当前气候统计的水压力低的水压力，强调了植被到夏季干旱的长期新平衡，但对稀有事件的敏感性更高。关于火灾发生的频率，气候变化趋向于将两次连续火灾之间的间隔时间从马奎斯灌木丛的20年减少到16年，而在森林阶段则从72年减少到62年。火灾频率的增加导致了灌木林为主的景观，通过额外的深层排水和径流增加了水的产量。

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