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首页> 外文期刊>Forest Policy and Economics >Fire regime shifts as a consequence of fire policy and socio-economic development: an analysis based on the change point approach. (Special Issue: The FIRE PARADOX project: Setting the basis for a shift in the forest fire policies in Europe.)
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Fire regime shifts as a consequence of fire policy and socio-economic development: an analysis based on the change point approach. (Special Issue: The FIRE PARADOX project: Setting the basis for a shift in the forest fire policies in Europe.)

机译：消防政策因消防政策和社会经济发展而发生转移：基于变更点方法的分析。 （特刊：FIRE PARADOX项目：为欧洲森林火灾政策的转变奠定基础。）

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摘要

When fire events remain recurrent in a given area over a certain period of time they usually result in a specific fire regime. Where humans interact with the landscapes, changing their flammability and acting as fire initiators or suppressors, fire regimes may change. Developing an objective and quantitative method for detecting short-term changes in fire regimes could be of paramount importance for addressing the effectiveness of fire management measures. We used the change point approach to detect shifts in fire frequency and extent in a 100-year fire dataset of two Swiss cantons (Ticino and Valais) differing in environmental, socioeconomic and legal context. We then analyzed the detected changes in fire regimes in the light of the implemented fire policy and the socio-economic evolution. Our results show the suitability of the approach for detecting change points. We found in particular that in the less fire-prone Canton of Valais, major driving forces that yield shifts in fire regimes are of climatic and socio-economic origin, whereas in the fire-prone Canton of Ticino fire policy measures also contributed to detectable changes. Fire legislative measures led to reduced fire frequencies, whereas improvements in fire-fighting resulted in a reduction of burnt area. Policy makers may learn from such analyses for planning future measures.
机译：当火灾事件在给定区域内持续一定时间反复发生时，通常会导致特定的火灾情况。当人类与景观互动，改变其可燃性并起火引发剂或灭火剂作用时，火灾状况可能会发生变化。开发一种客观和定量的方法来检测火势的短期变化对于解决火势管理措施的有效性至关重要。我们使用变化点方法来检测环境，社会经济和法律背景不同的两个瑞士州（提契诺州和瓦莱州）的100年火灾数据集中火灾频率和范围的变化。然后，我们根据已实施的消防政策和社会经济发展趋势，分析了发现的火灾情况变化。我们的结果表明该方法适合检测变化点。我们特别发现，在火灾少发的瓦莱州，导致火势变化的主要动力来自气候和社会经济因素，而在火灾多发的提契诺州，消防政策措施也促成可察觉的变化。消防立法措施减少了火灾发生频率，而消防工作的改善则减少了烧伤面积。政策制定者可能会从此类分析中学到计划未来的措施。

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