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首页> 外文期刊>Canadian Journal of Fisheries and Aquatic Sciences >Maximum survival of eggs as the key parameter of stock-recruit meta-analysis: accounting for parameter and structural uncertainty
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Maximum survival of eggs as the key parameter of stock-recruit meta-analysis: accounting for parameter and structural uncertainty

机译：鸡蛋的最大存活率作为种群招聘荟萃分析的关键参数：考虑参数和结构不确定性

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摘要

Despite their name, hierarchical stock-recruit meta-analyses are often parameterized in terms of steepness, which depends not only on the assumed stock-recruitment relationship but also on the recruit-spawner relationship. This parameterization requires assumptions about the reproductive potential of the recruit that are not desirable if the focus of the study is limited to the spawning-recruitment phase instead of the full life cycle. Thus, usage of steepness should be avoided in studies that aim to produce informative priors for the stock-recruit relationship for use in studies of other salmon stocks. An alternative key parameter for stock-recruit models is the maximum survival of eggs, which is the slope at the origin of the stock-recruitment curve when spawning stock size is defined in terms of the number of eggs. Furthermore, the current widely used practices in stock-recruit modeling could be improved by taking into account the stock-specific model uncertainty. We use the method of Bayesian model averaging to build a hierarchical stock-recruit model that allows stock-specific model structures with Beverton-Holt, Ricker, and hockey stick models as alternatives, all of which can be parameterized with the maximum survival of eggs. We illustrate our approach by analyzing nine previously published datasets for Atlantic salmon (Salmo salar).
机译：尽管有其名称，但是层次化的股票招聘荟萃分析通常会根据陡度进行参数设置，这不仅取决于假设的股票招聘关系，还取决于新兵与生成者的关系。如果研究的重点仅限于产卵-招募阶段而不是整个生命周期，则此参数化需要有关新兵繁殖潜力的假设，这是不希望的。因此，在研究中应避免使用陡峭度，而这些研究旨在为其他研究中的鲑鱼种群研究提供种群－招聘关系的先验信息。种群招聘模型的另一个关键参数是卵的最大存活率，即以卵的数量定义产卵种群规模时，种群招聘曲线原点处的斜率。此外，可以通过考虑特定于股票的模型不确定性来改进当前在股票招聘模型中广泛使用的实践。我们使用贝叶斯模型平均的方法来构建分层的股票招聘模型，该模型允许使用Beverton-Holt，Ricker和曲棍球棒模型作为替代股票的特定模型结构，所有这些参数都可以通过鸡蛋的最大生存期进行参数化。我们通过分析9个先前发布的大西洋鲑鱼（Salmo salar）数据集来说明我们的方法。

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