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Determining measures of insight and foresight from responses to multiple choice questions

机译：从对多项选择题的回答中确定洞察力和远见的度量

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Background: Clinical decisions require insight and foresight. When these are lacking, overconfidence and error can occur. Aims: Multiple choice questions (MCQ) responses were used to estimate insight, as determined by confidence in responses, and foresight, as determined by the safety of incorrect responses. Methods: An MCQ response system was developed which reflected confidence in, and safeness of, responses. An optional examination incorporating this system was offered to medical students at one university. Results: A total of 372 students completed the study. There was evidence of insight. The proportion of responses that were correct rose from 32% for low confidence to 77% for high confidence. The proportion that was incorrect and not unsafe fell from 34% for low confidence to 7% for high confidence. There was less evidence of foresight. Of the responses that were incorrect, the proportion that was unsafe increased from 52% for low confidence to 68% for high confidence. Measures of insight and foresight increased with experience. Students with poorer knowledge chose more unsafe responses, but with lower confidence. Five students gave multiple highly unsafe responses held with high confidence. Conclusions: Students had insight but less foresight. Experience and knowledge altered measures of both. This response system identified students who appeared to lack both.
机译：背景：临床决策需要洞察力和远见。当缺少这些时，可能会出现过度自信和错误。目的：使用选择题（MCQ）回答来估计洞察力，这是由对回答的信心确定的，而洞察力是由错误回答的安全性决定的。方法：开发了一个MCQ响应系统，该系统反映了对响应的信心和安全性。在一所大学的医学生提供了包含该系统的可选考试。结果：共有372名学生完成了研究。有洞察力的证据。正确回答的比例从低置信度的32％上升到高置信度的77％。错误和不安全的比例从低置信度的34％下降到高置信度的7％。缺乏远见的证据。在错误回答中，不安全的比例从低置信度的52％增加到高置信度的68％。洞察力和远见的程度随着经验的增加而增加。知识较差的学生选择了更多不安全的答案，但信心较低。五名学生高度自信地做出了多次高度不安全的回答。结论：学生有见识，但远见卓识。经验和知识改变了两者的衡量标准。该响应系统确定了似乎都缺席的学生。

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