...
  • 主题
高级搜索  >
历史搜索 清空历史
首页> 外文期刊>Mathematical Biosciences: An International Journal >Congruent epidemic models for unstructured and structured populations: Analytical reconstruction of a 2003 SARS outbreak
【24h】

Congruent epidemic models for unstructured and structured populations: Analytical reconstruction of a 2003 SARS outbreak

机译：非结构化和结构化人群的一致流行模型：2003年SARS爆发的分析重建

获取原文
获取原文并翻译 | 示例
           
页面导航
  • 摘要
  • 著录项
  • 相似文献
  • 相关主题

摘要

Both the threat of bioterrorism and the natural emergence of contagious diseases underscore the importance of quantitatively understanding disease transmission in structured human populations. Over the last few years, researchers have advanced the mathematical theory of scale-free networks and used such theoretical advancements in pilot epidemic models. Scale-free contact networks are particularly interesting in the realm of mathematical epidemiology, primarily because these networks may allow meaningfully structured populations to be incorporated in epidemic models at moderate or intermediate levels of complexity. Moreover, a scale-free contact network with node degree correlation is in accord with the well-known preferred mixing concept. The present author describes a semi-empirical and deterministic epidemic modeling approach that (a) focuses on time-varying rates of disease transmission in both unstructured and structured populations and (b) employs probability density functions to characterize disease progression and outbreak controls. Given an epidemic curve for a historical outbreak, this modeling approach calls for Monte Carlo calculations (that define the average new infection rate) and solutions to integro-differential equations (that describe outbreak dynamics in an aggregate population or across all network connectivity classes). Numerical results are obtained for the 2003 SARS outbreak in Taiwan and the dynamical implications of time-varying transmission rates and scale-free contact networks are discussed in some detail. (c) 2006 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.
机译：生物恐怖主义的威胁和传染性疾病的自然出现都强调了定量了解结构化人群中疾病传播的重要性。在过去的几年中，研究人员已经发展了无标度网络的数学理论，并在试点流行病模型中运用了这些理论进展。无标度接触网络在数学流行病学领域特别有趣，主要是因为这些网络可能使有意义的结构化种群以中等或中等复杂性水平纳入流行病模型。此外，具有节点度相关性的无标度接触网络符合众所周知的优选混合概念。本作者描述了一种半经验和确定性的流行病建模方法，（a）着眼于非结构化和结构化人群中疾病传播的时变率，（b）利用概率密度函数来表征疾病的进展和爆发控制。给定历史爆发的流行曲线，这种建模方法需要进行蒙特卡洛计算（定义平均新感染率）和积分微分方程式的解决方案（描述总体中或所有网络连接类别中的爆发动态）。从2003年台湾SARS暴发中获得了数值结果，并详细讨论了时变传输速率和无标度接触网络的动力学含义。 （c）2006 Elsevier Inc.保留所有权利。

著录项

相似文献

  • 外文文献
  • 中文文献
  • 专利
获取原文

客服邮箱：kefu@zhangqiaokeyan.com

京公网安备：11010802029741号 ICP备案号：京ICP备15016152号-6 六维联合信息科技 (北京) 有限公司©版权所有

  • 客服微信

  • 服务号