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首页> 外文期刊>Bulletin of earthquake engineering >The Global Earthquake Vulnerability Estimation System (GEVES): an approach for earthquake risk assessment for insurance applications
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The Global Earthquake Vulnerability Estimation System (GEVES): an approach for earthquake risk assessment for insurance applications

机译：全球地震易损性评估系统（GEVES）：一种用于保险应用的地震风险评估方法

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摘要

For the insurance and reinsurance industries, earthquake loss estimation is crucial not only to adequately price its product but also to manage the accumulation risk in the face of the ever-increasing exposure in highly seismic regions. Changes in the built environment and a continuously evolving earthquake science make it a necessity for the industry to constantly refine earthquake loss estimation models. In particular, it has been recognized for a long time that the vulnerability of buildings to ground shaking is a key parameter in any earthquake risk model. Current methods tend either to rely on the limited historical damage and loss data or on the numerical simulation of the response of individual buildings to the ground-shaking produced by earthquakes. Although both methods have their advantages and pitfalls, we are proposing here a simple solution, using transparent input data, that can be realistically used for the needs of the insurance and reinsurance industry, whether detailed information about the insured structures is available or not. The resulting product is known as GEVES (Global Earthquake Vulnerability Estimation System). It is primarily intended for evaluating the mean damage ratio (MDR) suffered by a portfolio of buildings classified by use, under the action of a given earthquake scenario (i.e. an earthquake of given size at a given distance from the portfolio of buildings). A key assumption was that macroseismic intensity rather than spectral displacement would be the basis of loss estimation. The paper describes the model with emphasis on its structure and the justification for the assumptions made. In addition to a new set of earthquake vulnerability functions, the paper also provides recommendations on some aspects of the earthquake hazard, in particular about how to define macroseismic intensity at the site of interest, for a given earthquake scenario. This paper also discusses validation of the GEVES model against calculated vulnerability approaches, and the treatment of uncertainty within the model.
机译：对于保险和再保险行业而言，地震损失估算不仅对于适当定价其产品至关重要，而且在面对高地震地区暴露不断增加的情况下，管理累积风险至关重要。建筑环境的变化以及地震科学的不断发展，使该行业有必要不断完善地震损失估算模型。特别是，很长一段时间以来，人们已经认识到建筑物对地面震动的脆弱性是任何地震风险模型中的关键参数。当前的方法往往依赖于有限的历史破坏和损失数据，或者依赖于单个建筑物对地震产生的地震动的响应的数值模拟。尽管这两种方法都有其优点和缺陷，但是我们在这里提出了一个简单的解决方案，使用透明的输入数据，无论是否可获得有关被保险结构的详细信息，这些数据都可以实际用于保险和再保险行业的需求。所得产品称为GEVES（全球地震脆弱性评估系统）。它主要用于评估在给定地震场景（即距建筑物组合一定距离处具有给定大小的地震）的作用下，按用途分类的建筑物组合所遭受的平均损坏率（MDR）。一个关键的假设是，大地震强度而不是谱位移将是损耗估计的基础。本文描述了该模型，重点在于其结构和假设的合理性。除了一组新的地震易损性功能外，本文还针对地震危害的某些方面提供了建议，尤其是对于给定的地震场景，如何在目标位置定义宏观地震烈度。本文还讨论了针对计算的脆弱性方法对GEVES模型的验证，以及模型中不确定性的处理。

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