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Risk early warning of maize drought disaster in Northwestern Liaoning Province, China

机译：辽西北地区玉米干旱灾害风险预警

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This study presents a methodology of risk early warning of maize drought disaster in Northwestern Liaoning Province from the viewpoints of climatology, geography, disaster science, environmental science, and so on. The study area was disaggregated into small grid cells, which has higher resolution than counties. Based on the daily meteorological data and maize yield data from 1997 to 2005, the risk early warning model was built up for drought disaster. The early warning crisis signs were considered from exogenous warning signs and endogenous warning signs. The probability of drought was taken as endogenous warnings sign, which was calculated by logistic regression model. Beside precipitation, wind speed and temperature were taken into consideration when assessing the drought. The optimal partition method was used to define the threshold of each warning grade. Take the year of 2009 as an example, this risk early warning model performed well in warning drought disasters of each maize-growing stage. Results obtained from the early warning model can guide the government to take emergency action to reduce the losses.
机译：本文从气候，地理，灾害科学，环境科学等方面提出了辽西北地区玉米干旱灾害风险预警方法。研究区域分为小网格单元，其分辨率高于县。根据1997年至2005年的每日气象数据和玉米单产数据，建立了干旱灾害风险预警模型。从外源性警告信号和内源性警告信号中考虑了预警危机信号。干旱发生概率作为内源性预警信号，通过logistic回归模型计算得出。在评估干旱时，除了降水之外，还考虑了风速和温度。最佳划分方法用于定义每个警告等级的阈值。以2009年为例，该风险预警模型在预警玉米各个生育阶段的干旱灾害中表现良好。从预警模型获得的结果可以指导政府采取紧急行动以减少损失。

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