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首页> 外文期刊>Occupational and environmental medicine >Ozone, heat and mortality: acute effects in 15 British conurbations.
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Ozone, heat and mortality: acute effects in 15 British conurbations.

机译：臭氧，热量和死亡率：在15个英国城市中的急性影响。

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BACKGROUND: Acute associations between mortality and ozone are largely accepted, though recent evidence is less conclusive. Evidence on ozone-heat interaction is sparse. We assess effects of ozone, heat, and their interaction, on mortality in Britain. METHODS: Acute effects of summer ozone on mortality were estimated using data from 15 conurbations in England and Wales (May-September, 1993-2003). 2-day means of daily maximum 8-h ozone were entered into case series analyses, controlling for particulate matter with aerodynamic diameter of <10 mum, natural cubic splines of temperature, and other factors. Heat effects were estimated, comparing adjusted mortality rates at 97.5th and 75th percentiles of 2-day mean temperature. A separate model employed interaction terms to assess whether ozone effects increased on 'hot days' (where 2-day mean temperature exceeded the whole-year 95th percentile). Other heat metrics, and non-linear ozone effects, were also examined. RESULTS: Adverse ozone and heat effects occurred in nearly all conurbations. The mean mortality rate ratio for heat effect across conurbations was 1.071 (1.050-1.093). The mean ozone rate ratio was 1.003 per 10 mug/m(3) ozone increase (95% CI 1.001 to 1.005). On 'hot days' the mean ozone effect reached 1.006 (1.002-1.009) per 10 mug/m(3), though ozone-heat interaction was significant in London only. On substituting maximum for mean temperature, the overall ozone effect reduced to null, though evidence remained of effects on hot days, particularly in London. An estimated ozone effect threshold was below current guidelines in 'mean temperature' models. CONCLUSION: While heat showed robust effects on summer mortality, estimates for ozone depended upon the modelling of temperature. However, there was some evidence that ozone effects were worse on hot days, whichever temperature measure was used.
机译：背景：尽管最近的证据尚无定论，但死亡率和臭氧之间的急性联系已被广泛接受。关于臭氧与热相互作用的证据很少。我们评估了臭氧，热量及其相互作用对英国死亡率的影响。方法：使用英格兰和威尔士15个城市（1993年9月至2003年9月）的数据估算了夏季臭氧对死亡率的急性影响。将每天最多8小时臭氧的2天平均值纳入病例系列分析中，以控制空气动力学直径小于10微米的颗粒物，自然立方样条温度和其他因素。通过比较2天平均温度的97.5和75％百分数下的调整死亡率，估算了热效应。一个单独的模型使用交互作用项来评估臭氧效应在“炎热的天气”（2天的平均温度超过全年第95个百分位数）时是否增加。还检查了其他热量指标和非线性臭氧效应。结果：几乎所有城市都发生了不利的臭氧和热效应。跨城市热效应的平均死亡率比率为1.071（1.050-1.093）。平均臭氧比率为每10杯/立方米（3）臭氧增加量1.003（95％CI 1.001至1.005）。在“炎热的天气”中，平均臭氧效应达到每10杯/米3的1.006（1.002-1.009）（3），尽管臭氧与热的相互作用仅在伦敦显着。用最高温度代替平均温度，虽然仍然有证据证明在炎热的日子，特别是在伦敦，臭氧的总体影响降至零。估计的臭氧影响阈值低于“平均温度”模型中的当前准则。结论：虽然热量对夏季死亡率显示出强烈的影响，但臭氧的估算取决于温度的模拟。但是，有证据表明，无论采用哪种温度测量方法，在炎热的天气中臭氧的影响都更严重。

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