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首页> 外文期刊>Oikos: A Journal of Ecology >Modelling population dynamics of seabirds: importance of the effects of climate fluctuations on breeding proportions
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Modelling population dynamics of seabirds: importance of the effects of climate fluctuations on breeding proportions

机译：海鸟种群动态建模：气候波动对繁殖比例的影响的重要性

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摘要

Environmental factors and their interactions are likely to have shaped specific breeding and survival strategies in top predators. Understanding how climatic factors affect populations requires detailed investigation of the demographic parameters and population modelling. Here, we focus on the modelling of a southern fulmar population over a 39 year period in Terre Adelie, Antarctica, using Leslie matrix models to understand from a prospective and retrospective point of view, how vital rates and their variations, affect the cyclic population dynamics. The elasticity of population growth rate to adult survival was very high (0.95), as predicted by a slow-fast continuum in avian life histories. However, adult survival varied little between years (mean +/- SD: 0.92 +/- 0.07), and could not explain the strong fluctuations observed in the number of breeders and chicks. The high temporal fluctuations of the proportion of breeders (0.57 +/- 0.22) and breeding success (0.70 +/- 0.14) had the strongest impact on population dynamics, despite their weak elasticities (0.05). Before the 1980s, population fluctuations were mainly explained by a direct impact of sea-ice extent (SIE) anomalies during summer (by a threshold effect) on the proportion of breeders. After 1980s, 3 years periodic population fluctuations were best predicted by 3 years cyclic variations in the proportion of breeders. SIE showed a marked change of periodicity during the 1980s, and SIE during winter fluctuated with a 3 years periodicity during 1980-1995. The marked change in population dynamics, through a change of the variations of the proportion of breeders, may be explained in the light of a regime shift that probably occurred around the 1980s, and which affected the sea ice environment, the availability of prey, and thus the demographic parameters and population dynamics of southern fulmars.
机译：环境因素及其相互作用很可能已经决定了顶级捕食者的特定繁殖和生存策略。要了解气候因素如何影响人口，就需要对人口参数和人口模型进行详细调查。在这里，我们重点研究南极南极Les族在39年期间在南极洲Terre Adelie的建模，并使用Leslie矩阵模型从前瞻性和回顾性角度了解生命率及其变化如何影响周期性人口动态。正如鸟类生活史中一个缓慢而连续的连续过程所预测的那样，人口增长率对成年生存的弹性很高（0.95）。然而，成年存活率在几年之间变化不大（平均+/- SD：0.92 +/- 0.07），不能解释种鸡和雏鸡数量的剧烈波动。育种者比例的高时间波动（0.57 +/- 0.22）和育种成功（0.70 +/- 0.14）对种群动态的影响最大，尽管它们的弹性较弱（0.05）。在1980年代之前，人口波动主要是由夏季的海冰范围（SIE）异常（通过阈值效应）对育种者比例的直接影响来解释的。在1980年代之后，最好通过3年育种者比例的周期性变化来预测3年的周期性种群波动。 SIE在1980年代表现出明显的周期性变化，而冬季SIE在1980-1995年间以3年为周期波动。通过改变育种者比例的变化，种群动态的显着变化，可以根据可能在1980年代左右发生的政权转移来解释，这种转移影响了海冰环境，猎物的可获得性和因此，南方的人口统计参数和种群动态。

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