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首页> 外文期刊>Parasitology >Simple epidemiological model predicts the relationships between prevalence and abundance in ixodid ticks.
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Simple epidemiological model predicts the relationships between prevalence and abundance in ixodid ticks.

机译：简单的流行病学模型可以预测ixodid s中的患病率和丰度之间的关系。

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摘要

We tested whether the prevalence of ticks can be predicted reliably from a simple epidemiological model that takes into account only mean abundance and its variance. We used data on the abundance and distribution of larvae and nymphs of 2 ixodid ticks parasitic on small mammals (Apodemus agrarius, Apodemus flavicollis, Apodemus uralensis, Clethrionomys glareolus and Microtus arvalis) in central Europe. Ixodes trianguliceps is active all year round, occurs in the study area in the mountain and sub-mountain habitats only and inhabits mainly host burrows and nests, whereas Ixodes ricinus occurs mainly during the warmer seasons, occupies a large variety of habitats and quests for hosts outside their shelters. In I. ricinus, the models with k values calculated from Taylor's power law overestimated prevalences. However, if moment estimates of k corrected for host number were used instead, expected prevalences of both larvae and nymphs I. ricinus in either host did not differ significantly from observed prevalences. In contrast, prevalences of larvae and nymphs of I. trianguliceps predicted by models using parameters of Taylor's power law did not differ significantly from observed prevalences, whereas the models with moment estimates of k corrected for host number in some cases under-estimated relatively lower larval prevalences and over-estimated relatively higher larval prevalences, but predicted nymphal prevalences well.
机译：我们测试了是否可以通过简单的流行病学模型可靠地预测壁虱的患病率，该模型仅考虑均值丰度及其方差。我们使用了在中欧寄生于小型哺乳动物（姬鼠，姬鼠，黄尾姬鼠，乌尾姬鼠，鼠疫眼草和小田鼠）的2个ixodid s的幼虫和若虫的丰度和分布数据。三角龙（Ixodes trianguliceps）全年活跃，仅在研究区的山区和次山地生境中发生，主要栖息于洞穴和巢中，而蓖麻（Ixodes ricinus）主要发生在较暖的季节，占据各种各样的生境和对寄主的追求在他们的住所外面。在哥斯达黎加，根据泰勒幂定律计算出的k值模型高估了患病率。但是，如果改用针对宿主数校正的k矩估计值，则在任一宿主中幼虫和若虫I. ricinus的预期患病率与观察到的患病率均无显着差异。相比之下，使用泰勒幂定律参数的模型预测的三角毛虫幼虫和若虫的流行率与观测到的流行率没有显着差异，而在某些情况下校正了k矩估计值的模型在某些情况下低估了相对较低的幼虫流行率和高估的幼虫流行率，但很好地预测了若虫的流行率。

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