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Evaluation on the application of life cycle matrix (LCM) in forecasting housing needs and housing demand in developed and developing countries

机译：评价生命周期矩阵（LCM）在预测发达国家和发展中国家的住房需求和住房需求中的应用

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摘要

The accuracy of forecasting of housing needs and demand is crucial to the preparation of development plan because residential land constitutes a greater share of the developed area of cities. Presently, many common methods are based on aggregate method, headship rates, household size, backlog and other accounting methods. Many of these methods have their strengths and weaknesses contributed by the assumptions and ‘intelligent guesses’ used in the calculations. This paper aims to explore alternative method of forecasting housing needs and demand by using Life Cycle Matrix. As a household undergoes change of stages in family life cycle, one’s housing needs and demand are experiencing gradual change. Therefore, it is essential to consider the life cycle change of a household in the analysis and forecasting of housing needs and demands. Life Cycle Matrix was initiated in Japan in 1980s to estimate housing needs based on population cohort and household distribution pattern. Comparative analysis using LCM is also being carried out in developed countries (Japan and United Kingdom) and developing countries (Philippines and Malaysia).ud
机译：住房需求预测的准确性对于制定发展计划至关重要，因为住宅用地占城市发达地区的更大份额。当前，许多常用的方法是基于合计方法，总人数率，家庭人数，积压和其他会计方法。这些方法中的许多方法都有其优势和劣势，这是由计算中使用的假设和“智能猜测”造成的。本文旨在探索使用生命周期矩阵预测住房需求的另一种方法。随着家庭在家庭生命周期中阶段的变化，一个人的住房需求和需求正在逐渐变化。因此，在分析和预测住房需求时，必须考虑家庭的生命周期变化。 《生命周期矩阵》于1980年代在日本启动，旨在根据人口队列和家庭分布模式估算住房需求。发达国家（日本和英国）和发展中国家（菲律宾和马来西亚）也正在使用LCM进行比较分析。 ud

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    Ho Chin Siong; Lim Seng Boon;

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  • 年度 2008
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  • 原文格式 PDF
  • 正文语种 {"code":"en","name":"English","id":9}
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