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Solving Daniel Bernoulli's St Petersburg Paradox: The Paradox which is not and never was

机译:解决丹尼尔伯努利的圣彼得堡悖论:悖论不是也不是

摘要

It has been accepted for over 270 years that the expected monetary value (EMV)of the St Petersburg game is infinite. Accepting this leads to a paradox; no reasonable person is prepared to pay the predicted large sum to play the game but will only pay, comparatively speaking, a very moderate amount. This paradox was 'solved' using cardinal utility. This article demonstrates that the EMV of the St Petersburg game is a function of the number ofgames played and is infmite only when an infinite number of games is played. Generally, the EMV is a very moderate amount, even when a large number of games is played.It is of the same order as people are prepared to offer to play the game. There is thus no paradox. Cardinal utility is not required to explain the behaviour of the reasonable person offering to play the game.
机译:圣彼得堡游戏的预期货币价值(EMV)是无限的,已经被接受了270多年。接受这一点会导致矛盾。没有一个理性的人愿意为玩游戏付出预期的大笔费用,但是相对而言,他们只会支付非常适中的费用。这个矛盾是通过基本工具“解决”的。本文演示了圣彼得堡游戏的EMV是所玩游戏数量的函数,并且仅在玩了无数游戏时才受到限制。通常,即使玩了大量游戏,EMV的金额也非常适中,与人们愿意提供的游戏顺序相同。因此,没有悖论。不需要主要的用途来解释提供玩游戏的理性人的行为。

著录项

  • 作者

    Vivian Robert William;

  • 作者单位
  • 年度 2003
  • 总页数
  • 原文格式 PDF
  • 正文语种 {"code":"en","name":"English","id":9}
  • 中图分类

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